Rivers may swell again as fresh monsoon spell arrives

• Met Office predicts rain across country from today until Aug 5; warns of likely flash floods, landslides • Indus in medium-flood at Guddu, eastern rivers may surge amid fresh spell
• Rescue efforts continue as villages on Lahore outskirts remain submerged
• PM reviews monsoon response

LAHORE/RAWALPINDI: With another torrential spell of monsoon rains expected from July 29, the water level in the Indus River on Tuesday was steadily increasing, with the river likely to experience a medium-level flood at Guddu Barrage within 24 hours (Wednesday evening), while flooding in the Ravi and Chenab rivers had reduced considerably.

According to an irrigation official in Punjab, the situation in the eastern rivers had improved, but the looming monsoon spell in the catchment areas could increase their flow again.

From July 29 to Aug 5, almost all parts of the country will receive heavy rains, which may generate flash floods in hilly regions and inundate urban centres, prompting the prime minister to chair a meeting on preparations ahead of the deluge.

The Flood Forecasting Division warned that the rainfall forecast from July 30 onwards in the upper catchment areas could increase water flows in the eastern rivers and their adjoining hill torrents. It added that a rise in flows was also expected in tributaries of the Kabul River, as well as hill torrents in the Dera Ghazi Khan Division and northeastern Balochistan. The flows in the eastern rivers (Sutlej, Ravi and Beas) and associated tributaries were also expected to rise from July 30 to August 4.

Rainfall across country

The Pakistan Meteorological Department said the new spell could generate flash floods in local streams in Kashmir, Murree, Galiyat, northeastern Punjab, Islamabad, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, hill torrents of Dera Ghazi Khan, and northeastern parts of Balochistan. The Met office said that monsoon currents from the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal were likely to penetrate the upper and central parts of the country from today.

According to the PMD, heavy rains may cause urban flooding in the low-lying areas of Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Peshawar, Nowshera, Gujranwala, Gujrat, Sialkot, Lahore, Multan and Faisalabad from July 30 to August 4. In Sindh’s Nawabshah, Sukkur, Shaheed Benazirabad, Hyderabad, Thatta, Badin, Sanghar, Khairpur, Mithi, Mirpur Khas, Umerkot, Tando Muhammad Khan, Tando Allahyar districts, urban flooding is expected from July 31 to August 2.

Dir, Chitral, Swat, Kohistan, Buner, Battagram, Mansehra, Haripur, Abbottabad, Gilgit-Baltistan, Murree, Galiyat, and Kashmir can experience landslides from July 30 to August 5 due to the downpour, which would also flood local streams and hill torrents in Balochistan, GB, KP and southern Punjab.

River flows

In its Tuesday evening forecast, the division stated that the Indus river, in the next 24 hours, was likely to attain a medium-level flood at Guddu Barrage, while at Sukkur Barrage it was expected to flow at a low-flood level.

Similarly, Chashma and Sukkur barrages were likely to experience low-level flooding, while Kalabagh Barrage was expected to continue recording low flood levels. The FFD said that Head Panjnad was likely to enter the low-flood category, whereas the flood at the Balloki and Sulemanki barrages was expected to remain in the low category.

According to the FFD, the River Ravi at Sidhnai was likely to enter the medium flood category, whereas the Jhelum and Chenab were likely to enter the below-low flood level category at Mangla, Rasul, Marala, Khanki, Qadirabad and Trimmu.

According to a daily water report issued by the Water and Power Development Authority (Wapda), the inflows and outflows in the Indus at Tarbela were recorded as 242,900 cusecs and 189,300 cusecs, respectively, followed by the River Kabul at Nowshera, which had inflows of 49,100 cusecs and outflows of 49,100 cusecs.

The Jhelum at Mangla had inflows of 48,500 cusecs and outflows of 86,000 cusecs, and the Chenab at Marala had inflows of 89,600 cusecs and outflows of 78,400 cusecs.

Flooded villages

The irrigation official said flooded nullahs, which had to be breached during the recent floods, submerged large tracts of land along the GT Road near Lahore and Gujranwala, besides Kasur. AFP from Muridke reported that floodwaters spread across fields and villages near Muridke. “Floodwater has inundated our area since Friday, leaving the entire neighbourhood submerged,” said Muhammad Faisal, 39, a labourer.

Haris Dar, a rescue volunteer, said dozens of villages remained under water and teams were continuing to evacuate stranded residents while distributing meals to affected families.

A statement issued after the PM-led meeting claimed that in some areas, agricultural land had been inundated due to floods in seasonal streams, and drainage operations were underway.

According to the statement, 110 people have lost their lives, 360 people have been injured, 796 houses have been damaged, and 376 heads of livestock have perished during the ongoing monsoon season.

PM chairs meeting

The meeting chaired by PM Shehbaz Sharif on the ongoing monsoon rains and floods across the country directed all authorities to be prepared to meet any emergency.

According to the PM’s Office, the premier directed the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) to remain in constant coordination with the provincial disaster management authorities (PDMAs) and the provincial governments.

The prime minister also directed Federal Minister for Planning Ahsan Iqbal to chair the flood committee’s meetings on a daily basis and determine the appropriate course of action after reviewing the evolving situation. He said the government was rapidly implementing short-, medium-, and long-term measures to address the impacts of climate change.

Officials of the NDMA and chief secretaries told the briefing that 700 locations had been identified across the country to store rainwater during monsoon.

Syed Irfan Raza in Islamabad also contributed to this report

Published in Dawn, July 29th, 2026 ...