Impacts of social and impact heterogeneity on social-climate outcomes

Regional heterogeneity in social characteristics, temperature change, and vulnerability to climate impacts is likely to influence the magnitude of anthropogenic climate change, but has not been considered in coupled social-climate models, which seek to represent interactions between social and climate dynamics.

Here, we examine how the projected mean global temperature anomaly and population support for mitigation respond to heterogeneity in these factors across five regions of the world, using a coupled social-climate model.

We find that heterogeneity in climate impacts increases the temperature anomaly by 0.2$^\circ$C, while social heterogeneity increases it by an additional 0.1$^\circ$C.

The projected temperature anomaly also increases with higher variability in climate impacts across regions, even for the same average global climate impact.

Finally, we identify a social-climate tipping point, where low vulnerability to impacts under existing social conditions in one region can tip the system into an alternative slow-mitigation, high-temperature state.

Our results show that heterogeneity in climate impacts leads to higher global mean temperatures and efforts to reduce global disparities could improve both social and climate outcomes.