Bayesian Conway-Maxwell-Poisson model with spike-and slab priors for dispersed count data with application to football scores

Statistical modeling for goals scored in football is typically achieved using the Poisson distribution and its variants.

Here we propose a Bayesian framework for modeling under- and over-dispersion in count data by combining the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson (CMP) likelihood with a spikeand-slab (SAS) prior on unit-specific dispersion parameters.

The proposed methodology generalizes Poisson-based count data models by treating equidispersion as an explicit baseline, and offering probabilistic quantification of departures from this regime, while simultaneously estimating their magnitude.

Posterior inference is performed through a tailored Metropolis-within-Gibbs sampler that handles the doubly-intractable likelihood and provides efficient posterior exploration.

The new method is examined using simulated data to confirm its ability to capture non-equidispersion, and applied to English Premier League (EPL) data.

Dispersion is modeled at the team level and linked to goal-scoring behavior, and allows for thresholding mechanisms to distinguish teams based on their posterior probability of non-equidispersion.

The results reveal heterogeneities in team-specific dispersion in the EPL, and demonstrate improvements in both model fit and predictive performance with respect to the standard Poisson model.