Conditional Disclosure as a Coordination Device

Social assurance contracts are private commitments to go public with a controversial view only when the coalition is big enough to be self-protecting.

Measurement, however precise, reveals what others think, not what they will do; social assurance contracts change that game.

By revealing nothing when a campaign fails, the contract removes the risk of speaking and finding too few beside you.

One global-games selection prices this protection in closed form, net of signing costs.

Success widens what can safely be said, but when failures leak the advantage erodes.