Self-Balancing Sequential Sampling: Fast Convergence with Controlled Predictability

Many instances of sequential sampling, including audit and inspection scheduling, representative sampling, and treatment assignment, require selections to be distributed evenly without becoming easy to anticipate or exploit.

We study a family of sequential sampling rules that adaptively bias sampling probabilities in order to achieve faster convergence of the empirical distribution to a desired target law, while keeping the resulting samples as unpredictable as possible.

The resulting self-balancing sampler is simple to implement, arises naturally among a class of Markovian samplers sharing a certain invariance property, and admits a stochastic mirror-descent interpretation.

Our main results show that (i) this self-balancing sampler converges at the fastest possible $O(n^{-1})$ rate with explicit dependence on biasing parameters, beating the standard $O(n^{-1/2})$ rate of IID sampling, (ii) it is the unique solution to a natural entropy-regularized optimization problem which balances the convergence rate of the empirical law and the unpredictability of the samples, and (iii) in the weak-biasing regime, the properly centered counts process converges to an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process in the diffusive limit.

Together, these results support a practical framework for reducing repeated selections and long gaps in coverage without making future selections overly predictable.