Persistence, Thresholds, and Trait Composition in a Regulated Mutation-Selection Model

We study a population model in which individuals carry one of two traits and evolve under mutation, selection, and density-dependent regulation.

A deterministic large-population limit yields a nonlinear system coupling logistic growth with mutation-selection dynamics.

We identify threshold conditions governing extinction, persistence, and long-term trait composition.

In particular, mutation induces an effective mortality rate that determines whether the population can be sustained.

When inheritance dominates mutation, a second threshold emerges: population establishment depends on initial trait composition as well as overall growth rates.

Although extinction ultimately occurs, the system typically exhibits long-lived quasi-equilibrium behaviour.

A diffusion approximation provides a tractable description of this, and reveals a transition in the sign of trait correlations.

The model thus illustrates how mutation, selection, and resource limitation jointly shape both ecological persistence and evolutionary outcomes.