On-farm management strategies for reducing H5N1 transmission in dairy cattle

Introductions of H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b into dairy cattle have resulted in outbreaks on dairy farms across the United States since early-2024.

Outbreaks have significant consequences for animal health, result in economic losses for the dairy industry, and pose a threat to human health.

Though the relative contributions of different on-farm transmission pathways remain a key uncertainty, a major route is considered to be through repeated contamination of milking stalls (i.e. the equipment and area where an individual cow is milked) due to the milking of infected animals.

Here we develop mathematical models of H5N1 transmission dynamics on dairy farms, considering multiple possible transmission pathways, and identify factors that contribute to outbreak risk and on-farm interventions for mitigating risk.

In particular, we demonstrate that dividing cattle into 'milking cohorts', with cohorts kept in separate pens or paddocks and milked in the same order every day, would be highly effective at mitigating outbreaks irrespective of the dominant transmission pathway.

Cohorting cattle is most effective when implemented pre-emptively (i.e. before an outbreak) and when newly introduced cattle are kept in the final milking cohort.

Additionally, we demonstrate that frequent bulk milk sample testing (e.g. weekly) would enable the rapid detection of outbreaks and implementation of reactive interventions (or scaling up of existing interventions).

Our findings can support the development of management guidelines for effectively responding to H5N1 outbreaks in dairy cattle.