Aggregation as a Double-Edged Sword: Fear, Allee Effects, and Finite-Time Collapse

Quantitative Biology > Populations and Evolution [Submitted on 16 Jun 2026] Title:Aggregation as a Double-Edged Sword: Fear, Allee Effects, and Finite-Time Collapse View PDF HTML (experimental)Abstract:Prey aggregation is widely regarded as a defense against predation, yet we show that in disease-structured populations subject to predator-induced fear and demographic Allee thresholds, aggregation can paradoxically accelerate ecosystem collapse. We develop and analyze a susceptible-infectious-predator model incorporating dual fear responses -- together with a sublinear aggregation-based predation term and an Allee effect. Critically, we derive an explicit upper bound on the extinction time that decreases as predator pressure increases or aggregation strengthens, quantifying for the first time how behavioral and demographic parameters jointly determine the speed of ecological collapse. This finite-time extinction subsequently triggers a cascade collapse of the infected prey and predator populations, driving the entire ecological community to extinction. Bifurcation analysis reveals transcritical, saddle-node, and Hopf bifurcations as fear intensity, aggregation strength, and Allee threshold vary. Two-parameter continuation further identifies the precise regions of the fear--Allee parameter plane in which stable coexistence, oscillatory coexistence, predator exclusion, and finite-time extinction occur, demonstrating that stronger aggregation monotonically enlarges the finite-time extinction region while weaker aggregation supports a richer landscape of coexistence dynamics. These results demonstrate that behavioral defenses operating at the population level can generate abrupt ecological tipping points when they interact with disease dynamics and demographic vulnerability. Submission history From: Kwadwo Antwi-Fordjour [view email][v1] Tue, 16 Jun 2026 06:48:51 UTC (791 KB) Current browse context: q-bio.PE References & Citations Loading... Bibliographic and Citation Tools Bibliographic Explorer (What is the Explorer?) Connected Papers (What is Connected Papers?) Litmaps (What is Litmaps?) scite Smart Citations (What are Smart Citations?) Code, Data and Media Associated with this Article alphaXiv (What is alphaXiv?) CatalyzeX Code Finder for Papers (What is CatalyzeX?) DagsHub (What is DagsHub?) Gotit.pub (What is GotitPub?) Hugging Face (What is Huggingface?) ScienceCast (What is ScienceCast?) Demos Recommenders and Search Tools Influence Flower (What are Influence Flowers?) CORE Recommender (What is CORE?) arXivLabs: experimental projects with community collaborators arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website. Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them. Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs.