Causal inference with dyadic data in randomized experiments

Estimating treatment effects in networked settings is a central challenge in online controlled experiments, particularly on social media platforms.

We investigate a scenario where the unit-level outcome of interest comprises a series of dyadic outcomes that record pairwise interactions between units, spanning from point-to-point messaging at the microscale to bilateral trade flows at the macroscale.

Because the response is defined at the dyadic level, the treatment assigned to one unit can affect the outcomes of all dyads that involve it, inducing a form of network interference.

We propose a design-based causal inference framework for randomized experiments with dyadic outcomes.

Within this framework, we propose estimators of the global average treatment effect under Bernoulli, complete, and cluster randomization, derive the convergence rates, and establish a central limit theorem for Bernoulli randomization.

We further construct a class of variance estimators that are asymptotically conservative under transparent degree conditions.

Numerical studies show that the proposed estimators can reduce bias and mean squared error relative to estimators based on unit-level outcomes in a range of finite-sample settings.

We illustrate the methods using two large-scale experiments on WeChat, evaluating the impact of a recommendation algorithm and a calling feature.