A Deep Learning Earth System Model Simulation of Indian Monsoon Intraseasonal and Interannual Variability

With the data-driven artificial intelligence/machine learning (AI/ML) models having demonstrated their ability to extend the prediction horizon of large-scale weather at a fraction of computational cost of numerical weather prediction models, a pertinent question is, could these models do the same for sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction?

A key challenge in developing a S2S prediction system is the requirement for a coupled ocean-atmosphere Earth system emulator that can stably simulate the observed intraseasonal and interannual variability with fidelity.

In the rapidly evolving field of AI/ML weather models, such a deep learning 3D ocean-atmosphere coupled model has become available, called SamudrACE.

With our interest in developing an AI/ML S2S model for Indian monsoon, here we examine the extent to which SamudrACE faithfully simulates Indian monsoon intraseasonal and interannual variability.

Compared to observation, we found biases in SamudrACE's simulation of monsoon intraseasonal and interannual variability.

Our systematic documentation and analyses of these biases provide a useful benchmark for improving not only SamudrACE but also coupled emulators in general and could fast track the development of a deep learning 3D global S2S prediction system.