Guatemala - Food Security Outlook Update: Lean season marked by a high dependence on the market, April - September 2026

Country: Guatemala

Source: Famine Early Warning System Network

Please refer to the attached file.

Key Messages

In the Dry Corridor, areas of Alta Verapaz, and the Western Highlands, the poorest households will experience an early lean season and will be classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) between April and September 2026. Consecutive years of crop losses have caused a strong dependence on markets for food. This dependence exceeds their purchasing capacity and forces them to resort to negative coping strategies, such as atypical debt and reducing the quantity of food consumed, to meet their basic food needs.

Between April and September 2026, many households in the rest of the country will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity. Despite their purchasing capacity being strained due to rising transportation and food prices, their savings and food reserves will mitigate the impact. However, an increasing proportion will fall into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) starting in May, as food reserves are depleted and agricultural labor opportunities seasonally decline. They will depend on markets with atypically high prices and will have to reduce food consumption and resort to negative coping strategies to meet their basic needs.

Below-average rainfall, above-average temperatures, and a prolonged seasonal dry spell (canícula) are expected. These conditions will negatively affect staple grain yields for poor households without irrigation and reduce agricultural labor demand during the primera agricultural season.

In March, fuel prices experienced atypical increases due to disruptions in the supply chain. Higher fuel prices increase transportation and food costs and generate higher expenses for agricultural production and trade at the start of the primera season. ...