Unlocking human development

THIS year, there is much to celebrate on World Population Day (July 11). Population issues have finally risen to the top of the government’s agenda. The prime minister has announced the formation of a high-level National Population Council, which includes the defence chief and four chief ministers among others. The long-term goal of a supra-body focused on population and related human development, to be headed by the PM, has been realised. Given the relentlessly high population growth rates with their huge, documented human and financial costs, this announcement was long overdue. There are great expectations of the NPC.

Much can be learned from other countries in the region and most parts of the world about how to accelerate and support fertility decline, mainly through investments and priority given to education — especially female education — women’s empowerment — especially through paid work — and above all, voluntary high-quality family planning services integrated with other aspects of healthcare. Pakistan’s peers — Bangladesh, Nepal, Indonesia, and India — embarked on this agenda of slowing down rapid growth over two decades ago. They have halved their fertility levels and increased per capita incomes, which were once lower than Pakistan’s. Above all, these countries have prioritised investments in improving human development at home.

Pakistan, on the other hand, is now among a handful of countries, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa, still grappling with large gaps in meeting the basic human needs of millions of people. Pakistan’s human development rankings continue to fall. This has been a two-way relationship: underinvestment in human development and stagnating rates of female enrolment and high infant mortality rates are also associated with high fertility. The NPC must pursue the immediate broader goal of rapidly uplifting/improving Pakistan’s sagging human development indicators.

It is important to begin with the realisation that people are not resisting change; rather, the state has failed in its responsibility to provide them with the means to fulfil their desires. The NPC has a golden opportunity to achieve its objectives of reducing fertility through voluntary behaviour and uplifting the currently lagging human development. Population management must be seen as good governance that responds to people’s needs, not a top-down policy.

Population management must be seen as good governance.

NPC members must be briefed from the outset that there is abundant evidence to verify a significant disconnect between families’ expressed unmet needs and the health and education services they receive from the public sector. Millions of women and men have totally different aspirations for themselves and their children but cannot access healthcare, information, education and jobs even to come close to fulfilling those aspirations.

Research by the Population Council and Guttmacher Institute has found that out of 12 million yearly pregnancies in the country, less than half are unplanned, and more than 3m result in induced abortions, with the rest being unplanned births. The 2023 census confirms that 25m children are out of school despite their constitutional right to primary education. Most of these children are unplanned, belong to poorer families, and live in remote areas where schooling is either unaffordable or simply unavailable.

Managing or steering population issues must ensure that the gap between the rights and needs of the most vulnerable and poorest families is bridged. The NPC must ensure that public funds reach this segment by ensuring equal access to education, health services and employment opportunities for both women and men. It must hold itself accountable to the people, address their needs and plug the gaps in opportunity.

The NPC must begin with important announcements regarding the provision of free and accessible public primary healthcare and family planning, targeting poorer families as identified in the active registries of social protection programmes. Quotas for women’s employment in the public sector and the protection of women and girls will signal directions for broader population concerns.

A major challenge for the NPC is to ensure the closest coordination of efforts across the provinces. After reaching consensus on broader aims, each province can set its own goals, provided it allocates priority and financial resources to population needs. The focus of the relationship between the federal and provincial governments is stewardship and support, with an emphasis on providing additional financing to the provinces to reward their investment in the people. A ‘Population Stabilisation Fund’ must be created, enabling payment for performance to provinces on key indicators: reducing infant mortality, reducing unplanned pregnancies and fertility, and increasing primary school enrolments, especially for girls. The senior minister of Punjab, representing the province’s CM, recently emphasised population as a development imperative. She strongly endorsed the Punjab government’s membership in the NPC. Other CMs will most definitely agree to an arrangement that prioritises what is increasingly being voiced as a national challenge.

Other powerful state actors can and must play a substantial role in supporting the NPC. With high-level government commitment, the private sector must join hands to address a national challenge that affects all Pakistanis. The judiciary can contribute significantly to women’s empowerment by ensuring that the laws protecting their rights are enforced. It has been lauded for recent legislation upholding women’s right to asset ownership and family laws and publicly punishing misogynistic behaviour related to gender relations. The media, too, if given a freer hand, can be more hard-hitting in its creative messaging to change values related to the powerlessness of women and girls in the decisions that affect them and their children.

It is time for all influential stakeholders to play their role in empowering women and men to embrace the population challenge. The government’s responsibility is foremost. It must begin to unlock demographic change by investing in human development through urgent, robust measures in education, women’s empowerment, and family planning and health services. This is an opportunity to break past trends and undo the human and financial costs of inaction. If we fail, we will be throwing away any chance of economic growth, political stability, and, above all, of doing right by the people of Pakistan.

The writer is country adviser to the Population Council.

Published in Dawn, July 11th, 2026 ...