Honduras: Key Message Update - Fuel and fertilizer price increases compound delayed primera planting, May - September 2026
Country: Honduras
Source: Famine Early Warning System Network
Please refer to the attached file.
Key Messages
Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes remain widespread across Honduras, with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes emerging in the Dry Corridor between June and September as above-average prices, below-average labor demand, and previous harvest losses exacerbate seasonal trends. While many households continue to meet minimum food needs through market purchases, they are struggling to cover essential non-food expenditures amid below-average seasonal agricultural labor opportunities and are increasingly relying on coping strategies such as selling small livestock and borrowing. In the Dry Corridor, households negatively impacted by multiple poor agricultural seasons are likely to resort to more severe coping strategies at the height of the lean season. The rest of the country will experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2), while urban centers including Tegucigalpa (Francisco Morazán), La Esperanza (Intibucá), and the Bay Islands remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) due to more stable formal and informal income sources.
Above-average fuel and fertilizer prices continue to drive high production and transportation costs for a second consecutive month. In April,diesel prices remained nearly 34 percent higher than March, 64 percent higher than last year, and 49 percent higher than the five-year average. Fertilizer prices have also remained elevated, with DAP (18-46-0) and urea rising to 7.2 and 50 percent higher than March, respectively, and 21.2 and 45.1 percent above the five-year average, respectively. These rising input costs contributed to inflation surpassing the 5 percent threshold in April.
Staple food costs persist above last year and the five-year average despite relatively stable month-on-month prices, driven by weak domestic production. In April, wholesale white maize prices were 49.2 and 39.8 percent higher than last year and the five-year average, respectively, reflecting increased demand and lingering effects of below-average import volumes in 2025. Wholesale red bean prices are 10 percent above the five-year average but remained stable month-on-month and year-on-year, partly supported by increased bean availability due to crop substitution of maize for beans during primera 2025and improved import volumes. While increased remittance inflows in early 2026 are helping receiving households partially offset higher food costs, most poor households do not receive remittances and remain vulnerable to price increases.
Recent rainfall estimates through mid-May indicate widespread below-average precipitation across Honduras, negatively impacting primera land preparation and planting in localized areas. While some localized rainfall has met thresholds for planting requirements, much of this precipitation has been concentrated within short periods (2-3 days), limiting soil moisture adequacy and leading many farmers to postpone planting until more consistent rainfall is established. As a result, smallholders are not expected to initiate primera planting until mid-May. At the same time, elevated input costs are constraining fertilizer use by smallholder farmers, likely contributing to expected below-average primera crop yields by August. The Secretariat of Agriculture and Livestock (SAG), in coordination with agroclimatology boards and with support from the Centro de Estudios Atmosféricos, Oceanográficos y Sísmicos (CENAOS)/Comisión Permanente de Contingencias (COPECO), is monitoring and guiding planting decisions across the country.
The forecast transition to El Niño is expected to result in rainfall deficits and above-average temperatures through September, particularly in the Dry Corridor, reducing vegetation health and soil moisture and disrupting crop development throughout the primera season. While the magnitude of the El Niño event remains uncertain, CENAOS has issued region-specific guidance for farmers, recommending early planting (before May 10) in the Dry Corridor areas bordering El Salvador, and slightly later planting (after May 15) in central and eastern departments. Drought-prone areas, including southern Francisco Morazán, El Paraíso, Valle, Choluteca, and southern Comayagua, are likely to experience larger rainfall deficits. SAG is advising some farmers to prioritize planting red beans instead of white maize due to its short production cycle and lower water requirements, improving crop resilience under uncertain rainfall conditions. ...