Venezuela - Key Message Update: Erosion of household purchasing power continues amid high food prices, May - September 2026

Country: Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

Source: Famine Early Warning System Network

Please refer to the attached file.

Key Messages

Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist countrywide through September, despite gradual macroeconomic improvements. Most poor households remain able to meet their minimum food needs, but face difficulties meeting their essential non-food needs due to extremely high food inflation in local currency and limited purchasing power. However, pockets of poor households – mainly in informal settlements around urban areas – with limited to no sources of income in USD and/or limited to no access to social safety net programs are likely to experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. These households’ incomes in VED are insufficient to cover the rising cost of food, resulting in food consumption gaps or the use of negative coping strategies, without reaching the necessary threshold to change the area-level classification in any state.

Macroeconomic conditions are stabilizing, but progress remains slow and incremental. Between March and April, the official exchange rate depreciated by 13.6 percent to 480.76 VED/USD while the parallel market exchange rate appreciated by 2 percent to 645.72 VED/USD. The gap between the official and parallel rates narrowed to 30 percent, declining 10 percentage points from March, supported by improved foreign currency availability throughout the Venezuelan economy. The monthly inflation rate slowed for the third consecutive month (to 10.6 percent), while the annual inflation rate was 611.9 percent (decreasing 37 percentage points from March). In April, the cost of the minimum survival ration (consisting of maize flour, rice, pasta, and oil) continued to increase in local currency at a pace similar to February and March, and increased by 11.5 percent in USD, reversing the downward trend reported last month. These increases reflect exchange rate pressures, high operational costs, increased consumer demand linked to increased social safety net benefits, speculation, and a perception of improving economic conditions, linked to stronger foreign currency inflows.

Oil sector performance remained strong in April. Crude oil production exceeded 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in April, according to OPEC, marking the highest output since January 2019. Crude oil export volumes also remained above 1 million bpd, reaching levels not observed since 2018. International benchmark prices have continued to vary, but averaged 110 USD/barrel (Brent) and 104 USD/barrel (WTI) through May 18, supporting increased foreign currency inflows and government revenues, which continue to finance social safety net benefits. Increased foreign currency inflows are reducing the gap between the official and parallel market exchange rates as the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) interventions continue to add hard currency into circulation via sales to private banks. In April, weekly intervention amounts ranged between 180 and 450 million USD, sold at an exchange rate of 570.75 VED/USD. According to the BCV, total interventions in May are expected to reach 1.35 billion USD at an exchange rate of 611.00 VED/USD.

For eligible households, recent increases in social safety net benefits are improving financial access to food. Although the minimum salary remains unchanged, the Ingreso Contra la Guerra Económica (ICGE) increased an additional 33.3 percent from 150 USD in April to 200 USD in May. Given the persistent gap between the official and parallel market exchange rates, the indexed value of 200 USD is equivalent to slightly less than 150 USD on the parallel market. This amount remains sufficient to cover the minimum survival ration estimated in April to cost 95.90 USD for a household of four and to also cover a portion of essential non-food expenditures. No Comités Locales de Abastecimiento y Producción (CLAP) in-kind food assistance distributions were reported in May. ...