Kenya: Research Terms of Reference - 2026 Multi-Sectoral Needs Assessment, KEN2601 (May 2026, 01)

Country: Kenya

Source: REACH Initiative

Please refer to the attached file.

2. Rationale

2.1 Background

The arid and semi-arid lands (ASAL) of northern Kenya, particularly the counties of Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Turkana, and Garissa, continue to experience multidimensional humanitarian needs driven by the intersection of climatic shocks, chronic vulnerability, and socio-economic marginalization. Over recent years, these counties have experienced climate variabilities that have severely disrupted livelihoods, reduced livestock productivity, damaged infrastructure, displaced households, and weakened already fragile coping capacities.1 While drought conditions have historically shaped humanitarian response planning in the ASAL regions, the increasing overlap between drought recovery periods and recurrent flooding events has created more multidimensional vulnerabilities affecting various populations. According to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, food insecurity remains a defining feature of vulnerability across ASAL counties. As of 2025, approximately 3.3 million people in Kenya were classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or worse, with around 400,000 in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency).2 REACH Initiative revealed widespread needs across key sectors, including water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH), health, nutrition, shelter, and protection.3

In this context, the humanitarian situation in northern Kenya has become increasingly dynamic due to the overlapping impacts of drought and flooding. While early 2026 was characterized by worsening drought conditions across several ASAL counties, the onset of the March–May 2026 long rains led to flooding that reportedly affected tens of thousands of households, disrupting livelihoods, damaging infrastructure, contaminating water sources, and increasing displacement risks in multiple locations.4 However, rainfall distribution has remained uneven and erratic across the targeted counties. Mandera and Wajir counties continue to experience severe conditions and remain in the alarm phase, while Garissa, Marsabit, and Turkana are classified in the alert phase.5 This variability has created a complex humanitarian environment in which some communities are attempting to recover from prolonged drought while simultaneously facing emerging flood-related impacts.

The refugee-hosting areas, such as Dadaab refugee camp in Garissa County, Kakuma refugee camp and Kalobeyei Integrated Settlement in Turkana County, where humanitarian conditions continue to evolve amid funding constraints and policy transitions. Recent reductions in humanitarian assistance, including food ration cuts and differentiated assistance approaches based on household vulnerability status, are likely to have significant implications for food consumption, indebtedness, coping strategies, social cohesion, and overall household well-being. In addition, accountability to affected populations (AAP) and equitable access to humanitarian assistance remain key operational concerns across the target counties.6

During the design phase, REACH consulted with a range of humanitarian and government stakeholders to contextualize the assessment and avoid duplicating existing data collection efforts. This involved discussions through the NGO Refugee Group (NRG), OCHA-led sector coordination meetings, engagements with sector focal points, the NDMA, and relevant county government counterparts. The input gathered through these consultations helped shape indicator selection, geographic prioritization, and alignment with ongoing humanitarian analysis and planning.

Against this backdrop, the MSNA seeks to generate comprehensive household-level evidence on the severity, distribution, and drivers of humanitarian needs across food security, nutrition, health, WASH, livelihoods, shelter, education, and protection sectors in Mandera, Wajir, Marsabit, Turkana, and Garissa counties, including refugee camps and settlements. The assessment will support humanitarian actors, county governments, and development partners in identifying sectoral and geographic disparities, understanding differences between refugee and host community populations, and informing evidence-based targeting, resource allocation, and multisectoral response planning within Kenya’s evolving humanitarian landscape. ...