A new Meduza analysis finds Ukraine’s long-range strikes are reaching twice as deep but not surging in 2026. Russia’s refineries, meanwhile, keep bouncing back.

A series of large-scale strikes by the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) on Bryansk, Moscow, Perm, Tuapse, and many other targets deep inside Russia has left a clear impression: Kyiv’s long-range campaign is hitting harder than it used to.

The images are certainly vivid: “oil rain” blanketing an entire city, a mass drone raid on Russia’s capital, and refineries under near constant attack.

Despite all this activity, however, it’s hard to tell whether anything has changed in Ukraine’s strategy.

Assessing the frequency and effectiveness of the strikes is challenging — both Moscow and Kyiv conceal their real losses and exaggerate the impact of their own strikes.

The available sources that offer a reliable picture of the long-range war’s progress are few and far between.

Meduza examines what we can confirm under these conditions. ...