PMD forecasts below-normal rainfall, high temperatures across most of country until September

The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) on Monday extended its forecast of below-normal rainfall and higher-than-normal temperatures across most parts of the country from July to September.

The PMD said in its three-month outlook, available with Dawn, that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently in a neutral phase and is expected to gradually transition into a positive phase during the season.

Meanwhile, sea surface temperatures over the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean are currently exhibiting a warming trend, indicating the development of El Niño conditions, which are generally associated with suppressed rainfall anomalies over Pakistan.

“Current projections suggest that these warming conditions are likely to persist throughout the July–September 2026 period, with a tendency to strengthen further as the season progresses,” the PMD report said.

The report noted that a positive IOD phase is generally associated with slightly above-normal monsoon rainfall over Pakistan. “However, owing to the anticipated late development of the positive IOD conditions, its influence on the overall monsoon rainfall over the country may remain limited,” it added.

The PMD’s forecast indicated a general tendency for “normal to below-normal rainfall across much of the country” during the forecast period, with the lowest negative departures expected in northeastern Punjab and adjoining areas. This was reinforced by its probabilistic rainfall outlook, which forecast the likelihood of below-normal rainfall in most parts of the country, including Punjab, Sindh, southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and most parts of Balochistan.

In contrast, Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir, and upper KP are likely to receive normal to slightly above-normal rainfall, it added.

Comparative maps showing normal versus predicted rainfall in Pakistan. — via PMD

Meanwhile, the mean temperatures are expected to remain above normal throughout the country, the report said, with maximum departure over northeastern Punjab and eastern GB.

The tercile probabilistic temperature outlook indicated that the majority of models predict above-normal temperatures across the country with maximum likelihood over most parts of Punjab, southern areas of KP, extending into eastern Balochistan and western Sindh.

Comparative maps showing normal versus predicted temperatures in across Pakistan. — via PMD

The PMD warned of the increased likelihood of flash floods and landslides, particularly in mountainous and flood-prone regions, due to “near-normal to slightly above-normal precipitation in the northern regions”, as well as urban flooding in plains of major cities in all four provinces.

It added that in GB, upper KP and Kashmir, the above-normal temperatures may accelerate snowmelt, potentially leading to increased river inflows and higher streamflow in downstream catchments as well as glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in these areas.

However, below-normal rainfall in all four provinces suggested an increased risk of water stress for major Kharif crops — sugarcane, rice, cotton, and maize — thereby increasing irrigation demand.

The report also warned of the increased spread of vector-borne diseases such as dengue, and flagged the risk of “strong winds, dust storms, and hailstorms which may affect seasonal crops, vegetables, and orchards”. It advised farmers to take precautions to protect their standing crops.

Above-normal temperatures throughout the country suggest the likelihood of intermittent heat stress development during the season, especially over the plain areas of southern Punjab and Sindh, the PMD said. In contrast, normal to slightly above-normal rain in the northern high mountain regions is expected to moderate and limit the intensity of heatwave conditions in those areas.

“Given the recent increase in windstorm events, it is advisable that billboards in major urban areas be either removed or securely reinstalled with enhanced protection to withstand severe wind conditions,” the PMD report stated.

“Similarly, proactive measures should be taken to protect solar energy structures to minimise the risk of damage during such events.” ...