Exploiting Similarities in A/B Testing with Off-Policy Estimation

Statistics > Machine Learning [Submitted on 12 Jun 2025 (v1), last revised 1 Jun 2026 (this version, v3)] Title:Exploiting Similarities in A/B Testing with Off-Policy Estimation View PDFAbstract:We study A/B testing, the standard protocol for measuring the performance gain of a new decision system relative to a baseline. Traditional A/B testing treats both systems as black boxes, ignoring potential similarities between them. In practice, however, new and baseline systems are rarely radically different and often share significant structure, which can be captured by their propensities to make similar decisions. We show that in such cases, the commonly used difference-in-means estimator, though unbiased, is statistically suboptimal. Leveraging off-policy estimation, we introduce a family of A/B testing estimators that exploit the propensities of the tested systems to achieve improved concentration properties. This family is flexible enough to be tailored to practical decision-making. The resulting estimators are simple, robust to propensities misspecification, substantially more accurate when the tested systems exhibit similarities, and gracefully fall back to the difference-in-means estimator when such similarities are absent. Our theoretical analysis and empirical studies confirm their efficiency and practicality. Submission history From: Otmane Sakhi [view email][v1] Thu, 12 Jun 2025 13:11:01 UTC (157 KB) [v2] Fri, 13 Jun 2025 06:11:04 UTC (157 KB) [v3] Mon, 1 Jun 2026 12:59:24 UTC (150 KB) Current browse context: stat.ML References & Citations Loading... Bibliographic and Citation Tools Bibliographic Explorer (What is the Explorer?) Connected Papers (What is Connected Papers?) Litmaps (What is Litmaps?) scite Smart Citations (What are Smart Citations?) Code, Data and Media Associated with this Article alphaXiv (What is alphaXiv?) CatalyzeX Code Finder for Papers (What is CatalyzeX?) DagsHub (What is DagsHub?) Gotit.pub (What is GotitPub?) Hugging Face (What is Huggingface?) ScienceCast (What is ScienceCast?) Demos Recommenders and Search Tools Influence Flower (What are Influence Flowers?) CORE Recommender (What is CORE?) arXivLabs: experimental projects with community collaborators arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website. Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them. Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs.