Oil Prices Are Crashing. Inventories Tell A Different Story.

Oil traders have gone from pricing in the worst supply disruption in modern history to pricing in a recovery that hasn't happened yet.

Inventory data suggests they’re getting ahead of themselves.

Brent crude fell below $77 per barrel on Thursday, the lowest level since the early days of the Middle East war, after the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz and launching 60 days of negotiations toward a broader agreement.

The market's verdict was immediate: sell first, ask questions…