Cutoff profiles for colored top-m-to-random shuffles with growing block size

We study the $p$-colored top-$m$-to-random shuffle on $C_p\wr S_n$ when the block size $m=m_n$ grows with $n$.

Let $E_{k_n}^{(m_n)}$ be the number of labels never touched after $k_n$ independent uniform $m_n$-subset draws, and set $b_n=n-m_n$, $q_n=b_n/n$, and $\lambda_n=nq_n^{k_n}$.

We prove that if $\lambda_n\to\lambda\in(0,\infty)$ and $b_n\to\infty$, then $E_{k_n}^{(m_n)}\Rightarrow\mathrm{Poisson}(\lambda)$.

Combining this with the exact nested-set reduction for colored top-$m$-to-random shuffles, we obtain growing-block total variation, separation, and integrated likelihood-ratio profiles.

In particular, if $Q_{n,p}^{(m_n)}$ is the one-step law and $U_{n,p}$ is uniform on $C_p\wr S_n$, then the separation distance from $(Q_{n,p}^{(m_n)})^{*k_n}$ to $U_{n,p}$ tends to $1-e^{-\lambda}(1+\lambda)$ for $p=1$ and to $1-e^{-\lambda}$ for $p\ge2$.

The criterion applies to small blocks, proportional blocks, and near-full blocks.