Middle East Oil Shock Could Hand Upstream Sector a $495 Billion Windfall

Wood Mackenzie now estimates that the global upstream oil and gas sector could generate $495 billion in free cash flow in 2026 if crude averages $90 per barrel, more than doubling its previous forecast based on a $60 oil price assumption.

The revision follows the sharp jump in crude prices triggered by the Middle East conflict, turning what had been expected to be another year of disciplined cash generation into one of the industry’s most lucrative windfalls in recent years.

Yet the gains will be concentrated among the world’s largest…