Risk Aversion in the Small and in the Large: Beyond Arrow-Pratt A Wiener Chaos Hierarchy of Dynamic Risk Premia

The Arrow-Pratt approximation is one of the cornerstones of expected utility theory, providing the classical local approximation of certainty equivalents and risk premia in terms of absolute risk aversion.

Despite its widespread use, its mathematical scope and relationship to higher-order risk preferences remain only partially understood.

This paper develops a new framework for the analysis of certainty equivalents and dynamic risk premia based on Malliavin calculus and Wiener chaos analysis.

We first show that the classical Arrow-Pratt approximation is not asymptotically valid for arbitrary sequences of vanishing risks, thereby identifying precise limitations of the traditional theory.

Motivated by this observation, we formulate certainty equivalents dynamically by considering the progressive revelation of uncertainty through a Brownian filtration.

Combining Itô calculus, the Clark--Ocone representation and the Wiener chaos decomposition, we derive a complete hierarchy of higher-order dynamic risk premia and obtain explicit representations of the corresponding coefficients in terms of Malliavin derivatives.

For mixed Wiener chaos expansions, higher-order preference measures, including prudence and temperance, emerge naturally through interactions between chaos components and are characterised using Bell polynomial representations.

Explicit results for quadratic Gaussian functionals and the Vasicek interest-rate model illustrate the theory and identify a broad class of regular Wiener functionals for which the classical Arrow-Pratt approximation is recovered as the leading-order term.

The results establish a unified framework linking expected utility theory, stochastic analysis and Wiener chaos expansions, opening a new perspective on higher-order certainty equivalents and the dynamic measurement of risk.