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Iranian Aggression Masks Economic Difficulties

The willingness of Iran to engage in conflict is often portrayed as a sign of a resilient economy supporting foreign ventures. In reality: said ventures mask problems.

No boots, masks running out: why Congo’s Ebola medics are exposed

NAIROBI/LONDON/GENEVA, June 9 - Nearly a month into one of the world’s largest ever Ebola outbreaks, medics in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo are struggling to secure basic equipment to stay safe and prevent further spread of the disease, according to more than a dozen doctors, humanitarian workers and public health officials.

Some host cities are aiming to house, not arrest, homeless people ahead of the World Cup

ATLANTA (AP) — Just a mile from Atlanta’s stadium, which will welcome tens of thousands of fans to World Cup games this month, dozens of people were camped out on a downtown sidewalk waiting for a homeless shelter to open. Some slept in sleeping bags, face masks over their eyes to block out the afternoon […]

Any cat to catch the mice

THREE parallel events now underway or recently held carry the potential in varying measure to reset India’s destiny, in all likelihood for the better. From a bird’s eye view, the field looks set for a change. The fact that Germany lost the election for the first time in 40 years for a non-permanent member’s seat at the UN Security Council offers stark lessons for the Modi government to ponder. Germany turned Palestine averse and cosied up to Israel, much like Narendra Modi’s India, with Chancellor Friedrich Merz in the saddle. The UN defeat is being linked to Merz’s embrace of Benjamin Netanyahu. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s future is also under a cloud, his ties with the Zionist lobby being a key factor. Ergo: Israel’s chums are being globally isolated. India’s proximity to Israel was nudged by right-wing ideologues to counter Russian prime minister Yevgeny Primakov’s 1998 doctrine to form the Russia-India-China group as a stabilising force in a post-USSR Global South. The Western countermeasures included America’s ‘pivot to the east’, dragging India into the Quad. But when the RIC went on to become BRICS, a ‘West Asian Quad’ was conceived including India, Israel, the UAE and the US. The faint outlines of the outcome of the Iran war are threatening to end India’s entanglement with both Quads. And the German debacle at the UN is the writing on the wall. Potentially, also crucial for the country’s future is the internet-spawned Cockroach Janta Party, which launched its first street protests in New Delhi over the weekend. The party minted into an untested force after a senior judge insulted unemployed youth as cockroaches. The ‘cockroaches’ have given a tart reply to the judiciary, but they’re also demanding the resignation of Modi’s education minister, hitherto an unthinkable prospect. The third albeit widely underplayed event is the fractious INDIA opposition group seeking to get its act together. Twenty-three parties, including Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress were holding a make-or-break meeting on Monday (June 8) under the Congress party’s stewardship. All three events have the heft to cause tremors in the Modi establishment. Some say the jolt could be more rattling to him than he experienced in 12 years of unbridled power. Questions have surfaced over the Cockroach lot with insinuations that the cluster of motivated urban youth is supported by the Hindutva order to vent the steam gathering from months of a crippling economic crisis, not all of which is linked to the Iran war. There is also the issue of an overtly corrupt administration keeling over with criminal incompetence amid lacerating acts of omission and commission. Hundreds of thousands of school-leaving students and admission-seeking medical college aspirants have been grievously harmed by leaked papers and erring tabulation mechanisms. The Cockroach party has sought probity in judiciary, education and the nexus between business and the media, but its critics have sought to portray the group as left oriented with some of them belonging to this or that communist party. Another suggestion is that they are an extension of the Aam Aadmi Party, a ploy to shift the focus from the improving chances of opposition unity. It’s a fact that AAP came out of the India Against Corruption campaign of 2011 in which the RSS played a backroom role to successfully undermine the Manmohan Singh government. There’s no need to spread fear of those such as the Cockroach party before they do something wrong. While the AAP’s birth pangs indeed created the grounds for the coronation of Narendra Modi as prime minister in May 2014, it is equally a fact that AAP was applauded the following year as the sheet anchor that stalled the BJP juggernaut in Delhi. Before this, the Modi wave had easily evicted Congress governments in Maharashtra and Haryana polls. And there was no AAP in Maharashtra to blame the defeat on, although in Haryana it did cut some votes. The AAP subsequently propagated a soft temple-hopping Hindutva, in which Arvind Kejriwal scrupulously avoided standing with Muslims when they were under attack from the BJP and the police in 2020. But if he or the Cockroach group can yet consciously or unwittingly help stall the rightward, obscurantist drift the Modi government has set India on, it would make Deng Xiaoping’s spirit burst into a smile. “It doesn’t matter whether a cat is white or black, as long as it catches mice.” Deng’s dictum applies to anybody who would rescue India from its current trauma. And there’s no need to spread fear of those such as the Cockroach party before they do something wrong. But let’s not get too swayed also by the shouts of youth power or the roar of something called Gen Z. As far as one could see, it was the youth that demolished the Babri Masjid with their raw sinews. It’s the youth that goes about lynching and harassing innocent citizens in the name of religion. Of course, on the other side, it’s the youth that’s languishing in Modi’s prisons, if they are not out on strictly monitored bail terms, for fighting for a just and equal society in a democratic system that doesn’t discriminate between citizens. Think Umar Khalid. There’s a youth component in almost every political party. The mighty US is split between youthful Zionists and their youthful adversaries. When I looked up Gen Z on a search engine, an option pointed to Gen Ziaul Haq! I think the idea of Gen Z or Gen Alpha etc is conjured to obscure the reality of universal class struggle, and in India’s of its defining caste identity. A few donning cockroach masks at the Delhi rally were seen carrying portraits of Bhimrao Ambedkar thereby putting Dalit politics at the centre. But again, hasn’t everyone used Ambedkar’s portraits to lure support? Finally, while Deng’s point is priceless, a useful caution in T.S. Elliott’s line says: “Youth is cruel and has no remorse. It smiles at situations which it cannot see.” A fair point to ponder. The writer is Dawn’s correspondent in Delhi. jawednaqvi@gmail.com Published in Dawn, June 9th, 2026

Oil market calm masks a host of unknowns

'Trailer of what is coming next': CJP says 'cockroaches showed their strength' in first protest

Hundreds gathered at Jantar Mantar demanding Union Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan's resignation over examination and recruitment irregularities. The Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) called the protest a 'trailer' for a larger movement, vowing fresh demonstrations if Pradhan isn't sacked within seven days. Participants wore cockroach masks, highlighting concerns over NEET, CUET, and SSC processes.

CJP protest: Delhi Police debunks FIR rumours

Delhi Police on Saturday issued a clarification on X, dismissing claims circulating on social media that an FIR had been registered against protesters who participated in the Cockroach Janta Party's (CJP) demonstration at Jantar Mantar.In its post, Delhi Police stated: "Certain social media posts and news reports are claiming that Delhi Police has registered an FIR against the protesters at Jantar Mantar."The police further clarified: "It is clarified that no such FIR has been registered."Urging people not to spread misinformation, the post added: "Citizens are advised not to believe or circulate unverified information. Please rely only on official updates issued by Delhi Police."The clarification came amid widespread discussion online following the protest organised by the youth-led movement.— DelhiPolice (@DelhiPolice) Delhi Police denies reports of FIR against CJP protestersThe statement was issued after reports and social media posts suggested that legal action had been initiated against individuals who attended the protest at Jantar Mantar.However, Delhi Police made it clear that no FIR had been registered in connection with the demonstration.The department urged citizens to verify information through official channels before sharing it online, highlighting the importance of preventing the spread of false or misleading claims.Six people detained as precaution during Jantar Mantar protestEarlier in the day, Delhi Police confirmed that six individuals had been detained as a preventive measure to avoid any possible confrontation between rival groups near the protest venue.According to officials, police received inputs indicating the possibility of tensions between supporters and opponents of the online movement.The detentions were carried out to maintain law and order and ensure that the protest concluded peacefully.Officials said the individuals were taken into preventive custody after allegedly attempting to create a disturbance near the demonstration site.No major incidents were reported during the gathering.Heavy security deployed across Delhi for CJP demonstrationDelhi Police implemented extensive security arrangements ahead of the protest.More than 1,000 police personnel were deployed across New Delhi district and other sensitive locations in the national capital.Additional security measures were also put in place at Indira Gandhi International Airport and major border entry points.Senior officers closely monitored the situation, while barricades were installed around Jantar Mantar to regulate movement and maintain separation between groups.The security arrangements were aimed at ensuring public safety and preventing any disruption during the event.Hundreds gather at Jantar Mantar for Cockroach Janta Party protestThe protest was led by Cockroach Janta Party founder Abhijeet Dipke and attracted hundreds of participants, including students and young professionals.Many attendees wore cockroach masks and carried flowers as symbols associated with the movement.Several school students were also seen attending the gathering along with their parents.Participants raised slogans demanding accountability over alleged irregularities in examinations and recruitment processes.The protest focused on calls for the resignation of Union Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan over concerns related to examination and recruitment systems.Why students joined the CJP protestThe Cockroach Janta Party emerged as a youth-driven online movement following allegations of irregularities in various examinations and recruitment tests.Supporters have raised concerns regarding examinations such as NEET, CUET, CBSE-linked tests and Staff Selection Commission (SSC) recruitment processes.Over the past several weeks, the group has expanded its reach through social media campaigns advocating greater transparency, accountability and reforms in examination systems.The Jantar Mantar gathering marked one of the movement's largest public demonstrations so far.Delhi Police urges public to rely on official informationFollowing the protest, Delhi Police reiterated the importance of relying on verified information from official sources.The department's clarification on X sought to counter rumours about an FIR and prevent misinformation from spreading online.While preventive detentions were carried out to maintain order, police confirmed that no FIR had been registered against protesters participating in the demonstration.Authorities continue to monitor the situation and have urged citizens to exercise caution before sharing unverified claims on social media.Inputs from agencies

High-functioning depression: When success masks suffering

People with depression don't always feel overwhelmed or struggle to get things done — some are highly efficient and productive, despite their low moods. So it can't be that bad, right? Wrong!

The illusion of change in Iraq: Baghdad's militia shake-up masks a deeper Iranian strategy

BEHIND THE LINES: The decision by Zaidan’s allies to integrate their armed elements into state security forces represents an effort by a pro-Iranian element to consolidate its power.

In pictures: 'Cockroaches' descend on New Delhi as party of social media fame stages protest

Young students gathered in New Delhi on Saturday for the first street protest by the satirical “Cockroach Janta Party” (CJP) over alleged irregularities in recent major examinations. Carrying paper cockroach masks and pamphlets, the protesters called for the resignation of Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan who has faced criticism over the irregularities, including question paper leaks and technical glitches. The CJP has garnered millions of followers on social media since its launch last month. Modi’s government has blocked the movement’s X account in the country, a move the CJP has challenged in a Delhi court. Political analysts say the group’s popularity has begun to dent Modi’s image despite his party’s recent victories in key state elections, even as wider frustration grows over rising fuel prices and gas shortages brought by the Iran war. Abhijeet Dipke, head of the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP), holds a copy of “My Autobiography” by Dr. B. R. Ambedkar as he gestures towards his supporters upon his arrival at an airport in New Delhi, India on June 6, 2026. —Reuters Abhijeet Dipke, head of the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP), holds a copy of “My Autobiography” by Dr. B. R. Ambedkar upon his arrival at an airport in New Delhi, India, June 6, 2026. —Reuters Supporters of the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) gather during a sit-in protest demanding the resignation of Indian Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan, in New Delhi, India on June 6, 2026. —Reuters A person wearing a mask holds a poster which reads “I am a Cockroach”, as supporters of the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) await the arrival of Abhijeet Dipke, head of the CJP, on the day of a sit-in protest demanding the resignation of Indian Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan, in New Delhi, India on June 6, 2026. —Reuters Supporters of the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) gather during a sit-in protest demanding the resignation of Indian Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan, in New Delhi, India on June 6, 2026. —Reuters Abhijeet Dipke, head of the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP), speaks to supporters of the CJP during a sit-in protest demanding the resignation of Indian Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan, in New Delhi, India on June 6, 2026. —Reuters Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) founder Abhijeet Dipke (C, right) shouts slogans during a protest over alleged irregularities in the country’s major examinations, in New Delhi on June 6, 2026. —AFP Abhijeet Dipke, head of the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP), requests supporters to maintain peace during a sit-in protest demanding the resignation of Indian Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan, in New Delhi, India on June 6, 2026. —Reuters A person wears a cockroach themed mask, as supporters of the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) await the arrival of Abhijeet Dipke, head of the CJP, on the day of a sit-in protest demanding the resignation of Indian Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan, in New Delhi, India on June 6, 2026. —Reuters Abhijeet Dipke, head of the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP), speaks to supporters of the CJP during a sit-in protest demanding the resignation of Indian Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan, in New Delhi, India on June 6, 2026. —Reuters A person wears a cockroach themed mask, as supporters of the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) await the arrival of Abhijeet Dipke, head of the CJP, on the day of a sit-in protest demanding the resignation of Indian Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan, in New Delhi, India, June 6, 2026. — Reuters Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) founder Abhijeet Dipke (C) takes part in a protest over alleged irregularities in the country’s major examinations, in New Delhi on June 6, 2026. —AFP Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) supporters shout slogans during a protest over alleged irregularities in the country’s major examinations, in New Delhi on June 6, 2026. —AFP Supporters of the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) gather during a sit-in protest demanding the resignation of Indian Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan, in New Delhi, India on June 6, 2026. —Reuters A person holds a cockroach themed mask, as supporters of the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) await the arrival of Abhijeet Dipke, head of the CJP, on the day of a sit-in protest demanding the resignation of Indian Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan, in New Delhi, India, June 6, 2026. — Reuters Header image: A girl wears a cockroach themed mask, as supporters of the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) listens to Abhijeet Dipke, head of the CJP, during a sit-in protest demanding the resignation of Indian Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan, in New Delhi, India, June 6, 2026. — Reuters

Hundreds join protest led by India's viral 'Cockroach Party'

Hundreds of young students gathered in New Delhi on Saturday for the first street protest by the satirical “Cockroach People’s Party” over alleged irregularities in recent major examinations. Carrying paper cockroach masks and pamphlets, the protesters called for the resignation of Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan who has faced criticism over the irregularities, including question paper leaks and technical glitches. “We want accountability from the government,” Utkarsh Raj, a medical college aspirant, told AFP at the protest site, which was watched closely by police officers in riot gear. “How is it that exam papers get leaked in this country? How is this right?” added Raj, 16. Protesters were led by Abhijeet Dipke, a 30-year-old Boston University graduate who arrived in New Delhi from the United States on Saturday. “The youth of the country will no longer fear anyone, they will fight,” Dipke, a former political communications strategist for the opposition Aam Aadmi Party, told supporters at the rally. “Cockroaches don’t ever fear, they never die either,” said Dipke, as others shouted in unison. Protesters said young people were justifiably angry. “India deserves better administration of such crucial exams by the government,” said 20-year-old Sarthak, who gave only one name. Last month, authorities scrapped the nationwide medical college entrance exam after investigators uncovered a question paper leak. Indian media reported suicides of teenagers following the fiasco over the National Eligibility Entrance Test (NEET), one of the country’s most competitive exams. That came on top of another scandal related to online marking system in tests taken by nearly two million high school students. “Young people have to give these exams and they can’t have a situation where these exam systems have no credibility left,” said Sapan Gyan, 52, who accompanied his sons to the protest. Modi’s government has blocked the movement’s X account in the country, a move the Cockroach Janta Party has challenged in a Delhi court. Senior cabinet minister Kiren Rijiju has accused the group of seeking followers from Pakistan and the “anti-India gang”. The group, which has amassed roughly 22 million Instagram followers since launching in mid-May, is the largest online expression of dissent against the Hindu nationalist Modi’s 12-year-old rule, fuelled by persistently high youth unemployment and recurring leaks of examination papers that threaten to derail the careers of millions of students. Political analysts say the group’s popularity has begun to dent Modi’s image despite his party’s recent victories in key state elections, even as wider frustration grows over rising fuel prices and gas shortages brought by the Middle East war. India has nearly 400 million people aged 15 to 29, and generating non-farm jobs for them remains one of its biggest challenges despite rapid growth. The urban youth jobless rate was nearly 14 per cent in April. Many educated young people are also stuck in low-paid or insecure jobs that do not match their skills, economists say.

Flowers in hand, calls for Pradhan's exit, 'cockroaches' end protest peacefully: All you need to know

The protest attracted hundreds of participants, most of them students and young professionals. Many attendees wore cockroach masks and carried flowers, while schoolchildren were also seen at the venue accompanied by their parents. Protesters raised slogans and called for the resignation of Union education minister Dharmendra Pradhan over issues linked to examinations such as NEET, CBSE, CUET and SSC.

Public urged to get jabs as flu cases spike

An expert on infectious diseases called on the public on Saturday to get vaccinated against influenza before the current batch of available jabs expires at the end of this month, as cases are on the rise. A recent serious case involved a 17-year-old who was left in a critical condition yesterday after developing complications, including severe pneumonia and shock from catching influenza B. He was not inoculated against the flu. Speaking on a Commercial Radio programme, Professor Ivan Hung, head of the infectious diseases division at the University of Hong Kong and an honorary consultant at Queen Mary Hospital , said the hospital has also logged more flu cases among children and the elderly. “Right now we're seeing a rise in the number of cases in both flu A, which is [subtype] H3, and also flu B, with quite a number of older adults being admitted to hospitals with severe flu cases, and also for children as well. Recently, we have had a 17-year-old with a severe flu B infection,” he said after the show. “But whether it's peaking – it's not yet the so-called summer peak – I think we really have to wait for a few more weeks to see how the trend plays out. "I do recommend anyone who has not been vaccinated to get vaccinated before the end of June because the vaccine is going to expire by the end of June.” Hung urged the elderly, particularly those with chronic diseases, to wear masks in crowded places and use hand sanitisers. People do not have to be too worried over Covid-19, he said, adding that it has become endemic in the city. “I think the coronavirus itself is relatively benign. If you look at the variant, the latest is NB.1.8.1, it’s actually quite close to the LP.8.1, which is the vaccine candidate," Hung said. "Basically, I think it’s not a major concern in terms of coronavirus. “Overall, we have very, very few severe cases being hospitalised. For the last year or so, we didn’t really have a surge in Covid cases. In general, it’s very mild, even for the older adults.” However, those who are immunodeficient and suffer from chronic illnesses should get vaccinated regularly, Hung said, urging those who have not been inoculated against flu to take the jab without delay, as vaccines won’t be available for a short period until the next batch arrives in the fourth quarter. Edited by Robert Kemp

Does Pete Hegseth’s volte-face on China reflect an America in decline?

Listening to US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth at the recently concluded Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, I thought of the iconic Sichuan opera act of face-changing, where performers switch masks in an instant. Last year, Hegseth’s speech at the event was filled with blatant attacks on China. This year, he put on a completely different face, declaring that: “Under President Trump’s leadership, relations between the United States and China are better than they’ve been in many years.” Why this...

Iran at war: Stability masks deepening crises

One hundred days after the Iran war began, the Islamic Republic appears stable. But beneath the surface, economic strain, social unrest and growing repression point to deeper instability.

US Senate approves US$70bil for Trump immigration crackdown

The package follows a record partial DHS shutdown earlier this year after Democrats opposed new immigration enforcement funding without limits on raids and officers wearing masks.

Dropbox called hybrid work ‘the worst of both worlds.’ New research suggests it’s down to ‘paradox management fatigue’

A three-year study finds hybrid's growing adoption masks a churn problem: half of employees who preferred hybrid in 2022 switched sides by 2025.

German serial killer found guilty of murder of French schoolboy

Martin Ney was given another life sentence for the murder and kidnapping of Jonathan Coulom, who disappeared at a school holiday camp in western France. Ney, who wore masks and balaclavas during his attacks, had already been jailed for life in Germany in 2012 after he confessed to killing three boys between 1992 and 2001.

Israel, Lebanon agree to conditional ceasefire

Israel and Lebanon agreed on Wednesday to implement a ceasefire but said it would require a “complete cessation” of fire by Hezbollah, according to a joint statement after US-led talks in Washington. The two sides, which do not have formal diplomatic relations, also agreed to create “pilot zones” in which the Lebanese armed forces “will take exclusive control of the territory to the exclusion of all non-state actors”. The development came despite continued cross-border attacks earlier in the day, with Hezbollah saying it targeted Israeli troops and Israeli strikes killing at least ten people in southern Lebanon. Just hours after the agreement was announced, air raid alarms sounded in northern Israel with a “suspicious aerial target” identified without causing any casualties. The joint statement said the ceasefire was “contingent on a complete cessation” of fire by Hezbollah as well as evacuation of the group’s operatives from southern Lebanon. The meetings in Washington were the fourth round of direct talks by Lebanese and Israeli diplomats since fighting erupted on March 2, when Hezbollah renewed attacks against Israel in support of Iran. Both sides will meet for more talks the week of June 22, the statement said, “with a view toward reaching a comprehensive agreement”. Hostilities continue Earlier in the day, US President Donald Trump said he wanted to separate talks on the conflict in Lebanon and those on the war with Iran. Tehran, however, insists the conflicts are linked and its Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that any attack on Beirut would trigger a “full-scale resumption” of war. The Israeli military said it intercepted a “hostile aircraft” and two projectiles that crossed into Israeli territory from Lebanon on Wednesday. Hezbollah, for its part, said that “in response to the Israeli enemy army’s violation of the ceasefire”, its fighters targeted soldiers in northern Israel with a rocket barrage. Early on Thursday, the group said it aimed a “salvo of rockets” at Israeli soldiers and vehicles in the southern Lebanon town of Al-Qantara, and also targeted an Israeli command position near the Chqif Castle with two drones. A truce to halt the fighting in Lebanon was meant to take hold on April 17, but has never been observed, with both sides justifying their ongoing attacks by the other’s alleged violations. Senior Hezbollah official Mahmud Qomati had told AFP on Tuesday that the group would “not accept a partial ceasefire”. Paramedics Among the Israeli strikes on Wednesday was one targeting a car on the main highway out of the capital, Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency (NNA) said. The NNA also reported strikes on more than 20 locations in the south, some after Israel’s military warned residents of several villages to evacuate. The Lebanese health ministry said an Israeli attack on Al-Hawsh near the city of Tyre killed four Syrians and two Palestinians. The health ministry also said an Israeli strike elsewhere in the south targeted an ambulance, killing two paramedics from the Risala Scouts Association. The ministry circulated images of a badly damaged ambulance, with medical masks spilling out of the vehicle and scattered on the road. A third paramedic was later reported killed in an attack that the NNA said targeted an ambulance team affiliated with the Islamic Health Committee in the town of Zibdine. At least 130 emergency and health workers have been killed since the fighting began. Lebanon’s army said a soldier was also killed in an Israeli strike, while an officer and a soldier were wounded in a separate attack on a military vehicle. The force denounced what it called Israel’s “deliberate targeting of army personnel, vehicles and positions”.

THE UNRAVELLING OF THE AMERICAN EMPIRE

“My name is Ozymandias, king of kings: Look on my works, ye mighty, and despair! Nothing beside remains. Round the decay Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare The lone and level sands stretch far away.” — Percy Bysshe Shelley, Ozymandias “I am in blood, Stepped in so far that, should I wade no more, Returning were as tedious as go o’er.” — William Shakespeare, Macbeth PROLOGUE This is and isn’t about America’s illegal war against Iran. It is primarily about hiding an empire in plain sight and now watching it unravel in plain sight. The war against Iran becomes a consequential event in tandem with other structural weaknesses, a fillip of sorts. It reminds one of the Soviet war on Afghanistan. That war, in and of itself, did not bring down the Soviet Leviathan. The process inhered in the very make-up of the Soviet Union. The war just shoved it over the precipice. But let’s get on with our purpose here. In August 2022, then-US President Joe Biden signed the CHIPS and Science Act into law. A $280 billion legislative package, it sought to revitalise domestic semiconductor manufacturing. The act was a response to a startling vulnerability: the world’s most advanced chips, essential for everything from F-35 fighter jets to surgical equipment to artificial intelligence, are overwhelmingly manufactured by a single company, the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), located on an island claimed as sovereign territory by America’s primary strategic rival, China. This dependence is not an accident of geography or a supply chain anomaly. The semiconductor industry wasn’t even hobbled by Covid 19. Despite its complex and far-flung operations, the industry works smoothly. The US dependence is the logical endpoint of a decades-long corporate strategy that maximised profit by outsourcing physical production while retaining only the high-value design and marketing ends of the value chain, the so-called “Smile Curve” strategy. The undoing of the United States in the Iran war may be far more significant than its defeats in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. It may well mark a historic milestone in the fraying of the position of the US as a global hegemon. But the seeds of this erosion of American dominance, argues Ejaz Haider, were laid long before its misadventure in Iran… The Italian economist and sociologist Giovanni Arrighi, to whom I shall return, would have been amused to see the revered smile curve — taught at prestigious business schools and which encourages firms to outsource capital-intensive manufacturing to focus solely on high-margin research and development (R&D), branding and marketing — as a classic trap of late-stage capitalism. In fact, the CHIPS Act stands as a state-level admission that this strategy, so profitable for individual corporations like Apple and NVIDIA, to name just two, has become a major geopolitical vulnerability for the US. This is the central paradox of America’s declining empire. The very mechanisms that generated unprecedented wealth have systemically dismantled the material and industrial foundations upon which that wealth ultimately rests. The decline of the American empire is not a partisan talking point. The US is a behemoth. It won’t just collapse one day like the Berlin Wall. Nor is a snapshot view the way to go. It is an ongoing structural process and a number of scholars have used longitudinal designs to analyse the trend lines. I argue that it is a slow, systemic unravelling across interconnected domains. First, the financialisation of capital, theorised most rigorously by Arrighi. Capital shifts from productive investment to speculative finance, generating short-term profits at the cost of long-term industrial vitality. It hollows out domestic industrial and political power, a process identified by American sociologist and political scientist Ho-fung Hung, who argues that off-shoring of production destroys the industrial ecosystem, skilled labour base and, ultimately, the social cohesion required for great power competition. Second, the erosion of the alliance system. And no, it’s not just Trump. Three deeper currents are involved: the gradual unravelling of the post-WWII security architecture; the economic failure of neoliberalism; and the imperial outreach baked into the very idea of neoliberalism. Third, the lateral diffusion of technologies, now commodified and everywhere. They help innovative and determined weaker powers offset the asymmetric advantage of bigger powers: Ukraine versus Russia; Hamas/Hezbollah/Houthis versus the US-Zionist duo; and now Iran versus the US-Zionist duo. As I note later in this space, the war against Iran is a much bigger setback for the US than its wars in Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq. Corollary: the post-WWII ‘Pax Americana’ is transitioning from a period of hegemonic stability, to use American historian Charles Kindleberger’s concept, into a protracted and likely irreversible, terminal crisis, to borrow Arrighi’s term. But let’s first begin with the peg: the war against Iran. THE PRESENT Since its inception, America has been at war: wars of choice, wars of conquest, wars for resources, wars to defend its hegemony, wars to spread “American values.” How or why does the Iran war stand out? Foremost, the conflict has confirmed the structural limits of US coercive diplomacy in a shifting multipolar world. It has exposed acute structural vulnerabilities in defence economics and inventory endurance, as well as a critical absence of pragmatic post-war planning and a misreading of societal resilience. The conflict has also underscored the changing nature of global alignments in a multipolar world. This comes with the collapse of coercive economic power. For four decades, the US has relied on sophisticated sanctions and lawfare to pressure Iran into subjugation. It has failed, showing the limits of sanctions, especially on fungible commodities. Even sanctions on non-fungible elements like technology can be circumvented. As in Iran’s case, the sanctioned state can develop indigenous expertise through varied strategies. There’s clear evidence that Tehran has developed complex and sophisticated non-dollar lifelines with China and Russia, rendering unilateral sanctions increasingly ineffective. It has used an array of strategies to blunt the effect: interchangeability (can’t sell to X; sell to Y); value retention (barter, use of cryptocurrencies); substitution and evasion (relying on third parties, covert ship-to-ship transfers, use of shell companies). Unlike the insurgencies in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, the US is not involved in ground combat in Iran (so far). It has relied on high-tech aerial and missile attacks through its formidable ISTAR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition and Reconnaissance) capabilities. Iran has not responded through elusive, hit-and-run ground attacks. It has countered US technology through technology in a non-contact war. But its employment of technology is grounded in asymmetric capabilities: a large arsenal of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and one-way attack drones. The cost-exchange ratio, by most accounts, is unfavourable for the US. For instance, the Iranian Shahed-136 one-way attack drone has an estimated unit cost of $20,000 (some estimates put it at around $10,000). It is a simple, slow-moving, and relatively easy to detect drone. But it is also cheap and plentiful. To intercept it with costly SM-2 or ESSM missiles creates a cost-exchange ratio of between 30 to one and 100 to one. It is also a shoot-and-scoot system. Iran can afford to lose hundreds of such drones and produce some 1,000 per month. The US cannot afford to fire thousands of interceptors at them. And those interceptors take three to four years to manufacture. It is a cost-asymmetric war. Similarly, the US has been pulling out assets from the Pacific to the Gulf. The USS Boxer amphibious group is an example. Diverting naval assets from the Pacific physically manifests deployment overstretch. As Robert Farley, visiting professor at US Army War College notes, resources needed to prevail in one theatre guarantee weakness in another. It’s the same with all force deployments and employments: “Every missile allocated to one target is unavailable for another.” The contrast with Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan is instructive. In those theatres, the US was defeated by determined insurgencies, even as it bombed and bombed. The adversaries were willing to absorb enormous casualties, drag it out and inflict mission fatigue on the US. In both Iraq and Afghanistan, broadly speaking, the US won the conventional war expeditiously but then got bogged down. In the Iran conflict, while Tehran has demonstrated the ability to absorb much pain, the US is not facing elusive insurgents but a state with a sophisticated missile programme, a sharp understanding of force employment, a network of allies across the region (Hezbollah in Lebanon, Ansar Allah in Yemen, and Hashd al-Shaabi in Iraq and Syria), and the ability to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world’s oil passes. Iran has also demonstrated adaptation under fire, used the operational strategy of dispersal and delegation, exercised deception, demonstrated growing targeting capabilities through ISR, rapid repair of underground sites after US-Zionist bombing and consistently shifted locations for counterattack operations. Can the US still bomb Iran? Of course. Will that be painful? Yes. Will Iran respond? Hell, yes. Would that raise the overall cost? You can bet your dime on it. It will be proof, yet again, that it is a slow grind and the US cannot achieve its objectives at a sustainable cost. Yet, it is stuck, because to walk away means it loses credibility. Trump needs a win; Iran is not prepared to give him that. The war has changed the ground realities. There is no status quo ante. The objectives remain strategically incompatible — ie we might get a pause, even a long one, but the essential causes remain unaddressed. Spoiler alert: Zionist entity. US President Donald Trump attending the return of the bodies of the first six American soldiers killed during the war with Iran on March 7, 2026: the lateral diffusion of technologies help innovative and determined weaker powers, such as Iran, offset the asymmetric advantage of bigger powers, such as the US | AFP THE POINTILLIST EMPIRE: HOW IT BEGAN American imperialism did not begin with grand pronouncements like the Monroe Doctrine or the Big Stick diplomacy of Theodore Roosevelt, though they give us a potent sense of a rising, expansionist power. It literally began with bird poop, which sounds about right if one were to understand imperialism as a crap enterprise. The Guano Islands Act of 1856 allowed US citizens to claim uninhabited, guano-rich islands. The act set a precedent for later overseas acquisitions. Historian Daniel Immerwahr calls this a “pointillist” empire. This practical, resource-driven, and often hidden expansion set a pattern that would define America’s power and military bases for the next century. The Mexican-American War (1846-1848) established the continental empire, seizing vast territories from Mexico. This wasn’t a war of liberation but a war of conquest, not manifest destiny but a fig leaf to cover the musty crotch of violent expansion, economic greed and racial supremacy. The 1848 Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo formalised the seizure of over half of Mexico’s territory. The Spanish-American War of 1898 definitively projected American power overseas. Theodore Roosevelt’s Secretary of State John Hay, in a personal letter to Roosevelt, called it a “splendid little war.” By its end, the US had seized Cuba, Puerto Rico, Guam and the Philippines. But the “splendid” label concealed a brutal reality, just like the payload of Trump’s “gorgeous B-2 bombers.” The subsequent Philippine-American War (1899-1902) resulted in Filipino genocide. That savagery has been systematically erased from American popular memory, even as Mark Twain was scathing in his condemnation and also did a fantastic job of calling out Rudyard Kipling for The White Man’s Burden. But this wasn’t all. Immerwahr documents that American forces employed waterboarding (yes, much before the darned ‘War on Terror’), concentration camps (“black sites”), and scorched-earth tactics that would be recognisable to any student of colonial atrocities. After World War I, US President Woodrow Wilson attempted a new form of imperialism: liberal internationalism, rather than direct territorial control. Much has been written about the “Wilsonian moment.” British historian and diplomat E. H. Carr called it a utopian project, divorced from the reality of power politics. In fact, it wasn’t. The project was essentially colonial and Wilson’s liberal internationalism fit it perfectly. The mandates were thriving. The US Senate’s refusal to join the League of Nations left a vacuum that no amount of idealistic pronouncements could fill. War did come. Carr gives us insights into why it became inevitable. The US emerged from the war as the leading power. The post-WWII order was a direct lesson learned from the intervening two decades. No more “isolationism”. The US must play the role of the hegemonic stabiliser. The core argument was simple and powerful: a stable world economy requires a single power to act as lender of last resort, maintain an open market for distressed goods, and coordinate macroeconomic policies. The US did that via the Bretton Woods system, the Marshall Plan and a vast security architecture that spanned the globe. The quid for the quo? American dominance. The US was now fully involved. It bore the cost but the return on investment was handsome. It kept the US in the lead, even during the bipolarity of the Cold War and beyond. With the Berlin wall crumbling, American political scientist Francis Fukuyama became the mascot for neoliberalism. History had ended; all the wagon trains were destined for one town. Some might arrive late, but arrive they would. Europe was pacified and rebuilt. Japan was demilitarised and transformed into a manufacturing powerhouse. The dollar became the world’s reserve currency, giving the US what French President Valery Giscard d’Estaing called “exorbitant privilege.” For three decades, from 1945 to the early 1970s, this system appeared to confirm the virtues of hegemonic stability. Real GDP growth in Western Europe averaged nearly five percent annually, and the US share of world manufacturing output remained above 40 percent. But beneath the surface, the seeds of decline were already being sown. ARRIGHIAN COUNTER World-systems theorists like Immanuel Wallerstein and Giovanni Arrighi were not focused on immediate “imperial overstretch” in the manner of British historian Paul Kennedy. Kennedy argued that empires declined when their military commitments outpaced their economic base. The US, he warned, was suffering from imperial overreach. For Arrighi, the decline was gradual and subtle. He argued that capitalist hegemonies move through repeating “systemic cycles of accumulation.” A phase of material expansion where capital is invested in production, infrastructure and trade, inevitably gives way to a phase of financial expansion, where capital seeks profit through speculation, lending and financial engineering. The material foundation is hollowed out even as the financial superstructure appears to boom. This was the logic of capitalism. The “autumn” of each hegemon is marked by a dazzling financial belle époque that masks terminal decline. The smile curve strategy is the purest expression of this financialisation and Apple is a textbook case. It designs its products, develops its chips, creates the operating systems, controls the branding, marketing and the retail experience. But it manufactures almost nothing. The iPhones and MacBooks are assembled by Foxconn in Zhengzhou and by Pegatron in Shanghai. The advanced chips are fabricated by TSMC in Taiwan. The displays come from Samsung in South Korea and LG Display. Apple captures an estimated 80-90 percent of the profit from each device, while the suppliers who do the actual physical work fight over the remaining scraps. Business schools love this strategy because it maximises corporate profits and shareholder value. But as Hung argues in his work on global value chains and the Arrighian counter, what maximises corporate profits does not necessarily maximise national power. In fact, it may systematically undermine it. By outsourcing the middle of the smile curve, the US has drastically hollowed out its industrial ecosystem. Combine it with the faith in short, sharp wars of shock and awe through high-tech precision weapons and we get the full picture of what has happened in the war against Iran. This is very different from the WWII industrial base of America. This brings us to TSMC and the chokepoint crisis. It manufactures chips designed by other companies (Nvidia, AMD, Qualcomm) rather than designing and selling its own chips. Over three decades, TSMC has built an unassailable lead in advanced process nodes. By 2025, it was manufacturing 92 percent of the world’s most advanced chips. The entire global technology industry (including the US military and intelligence apparatus) became dependent on a single cluster of fabs (fabrication plants) in Hsinchu, Taichung and Tainan. China, which views Taiwan as a breakaway province to be reunited with the mainland by force if necessary, has the physical means to blockade or invade the island. Whether it would do so or should is a different debate. On ground, the People’s Liberation Army has been systematically building anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities, to prevent US intervention in a Taiwan scenario. It’s a fairly absurd position from the US point of view! Its technological supremacy is guaranteed by a factory complex on an island which, in theory, its primary strategic rival could potentially seize or blockade. To circle back to the CHIPS Act, this is the background. TSMC is now building a fab complex in Arizona. Intel is expanding in Ohio and Arizona. Samsung is building in Texas. But, as a 2023 Marketplace report noted, replicating TSMC’s “deep, deep process knowledge” will take years. The fab in Arizona has already faced delays, cost overruns, and labour disputes. Taiwanese engineers are reluctant to relocate to the United States. The set goes to Arrighi. America’s weaponisation of the dollar has accelerated efforts by China, Russia and other BRICS members to create alternatives | Shutterstock THE DOLLAR DILEMMA The dollar’s role as the world’s primary reserve currency has been a central pillar of American power since the Bretton Woods agreement of 1944. This exorbitant privilege allows the US to borrow in its own currency, run persistent trade deficits without penalty and, crucially, impose unilateral financial sanctions on states, corporations, and individuals. This weaponisation of the dollar has accelerated efforts by China, Russia and other BRICS members to create alternatives. China has been aggressively promoting its own Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) as an alternative to Swift. The People’s Bank of China has signed bilateral currency swap agreements with dozens of countries, allowing trade to be settled in renminbi rather than dollars. Russia has demanded payment in rubles for its natural gas exports. India has established a rupee settlement mechanism for trade. Brazil and China have agreed to trade in their own currencies. The Central Bank of Brazil has announced that it is diversifying its reserves away from the dollar. And yet, the actual pace of de-dollarisation has been glacial. Several structural factors explain this “stickiness”, to use American political economist Benjamin Cohen’s term. First, there is network stickiness. The dollar’s dominance is not simply a matter of policy; it is an issue of deep, self-reinforcing infrastructure. Global supply chains, commodity exchanges, derivatives markets, and correspondent banking networks are all built around the dollar. Second, as various experts have argued, there is a lack of viable alternatives. The Chinese renminbi, despite China’s enormous economic weight, is not a free-floating, fully convertible currency. China maintains capital controls, a heavily regulated financial system, and a non-independent central bank. No foreign investor can be certain that their renminbi holdings would not be frozen or devalued by arbitrary state action. The euro, the second-largest reserve currency, is hobbled by the Eurozone’s fragmented fiscal system and the lingering scars of the 2011 debt crisis. Gold is impractical for everyday transactions. And cryptocurrencies are far too volatile and illiquid to serve as a reserve asset. Third is the absence of a deep, liquid and open bond market. A reserve currency requires a “safe asset” in which foreign central banks can park their surplus reserves. The US Treasury market, with $25 trillion in outstanding debt and extraordinary liquidity, is the only game in town. Result: while China and Russia publicly call for de-dollarisation, their central banks have themselves continued to accumulate US Treasury securities, because there is nowhere else to go. Corollary: the near-term prognosis for de-dollarisation is not collapse but slow erosion. IMF data shows the dollar’s share of global reserves has declined from over 70 percent in 2000 to approximately 58 percent in 2025. This is not a precipitous decline, but it is a steady one. The debate is not if the dollar will lose its dominance but when. I have no expertise in this area and I have relied on studying existing expertise. Most analyses measure the timeframe in decades, not years. From that, my understanding is that increasing uncertainty, further weaponisation of the dollar, continuing application of sanctions and asset freezes will (a) erode the confidence that underpins the entire system and (b) force experts (and governments) to find alternatives. EPILOGUE: TERMINAL CRISIS Two other issues are important but I am only flagging them here for paucity of space: the implosion of neoliberalism and its internal effects and the fraying of the transatlantic alliance. Both are exacerbated by Trump but neither is a direct result of his election. Both are extremely consequential. The United States has not collapsed; not yet. Nor can it be defeated from outside. But it can crumble from within. The future is not about a return to US hegemony, certainly not in a unipolar sense. The industrial base may be gone but it can be rebuilt, albeit not overnight. Alliances are frayed; trust cannot be easily restored. The fiscal position is precarious, with a $35 trillion US national debt. Internal politics is deeply polarised, with a significant portion of the American electorate believing that the system is rigged against them. A lot of these factors, singly and in combination with other factors, are self-reinforcing. The future also lies in terra incognita, a contested transition to a multipolar world, whose contours remain unknown. A recent book by German political analyst Marc Saxer, Geopolitical Conflict in the Wolf World, is a sobering structural assessment of where the world and the US are headed. “Homo homini lupus est” (Man is a wolf to man) is how Saxer begins. With that statement, we are back to Plautus and Hobbes. This is not mere rhetorical flourish. Saxer’s wolf world is an analytic category, a systemic condition characterised by the absence of a hegemon capable of enforcing rules, the demise of neoliberalism, the collapse of shared legal-normative frameworks, the return of great-power competition, the rise of Middle Powers, many with regional hegemonic aspirations, and the normalisation of coercion as a primary instrument of statecraft. As I said to Saxer during the launch of his book in Lahore, for the Global South, it has always been a wolf world. Pax Americana did not keep the peace for the periphery. It financed selective peace on credit. The bill has now come due. The writer is a journalist interested in security and foreign policies. X: @ejazhaider Published in Dawn, EOS, May 31st, 2026