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Dry weather is disrupting crop planting across Asia, raising concerns about food supplies in the world’s most populous region, and an expected severe El Niño weather pattern could inflict more damage. From India’s grain-producing northwestern plains to Australia’s eastern wheat belt, and from Thailand’s rice fields to Indonesia’s vast palm oil plantations, hot weather and below-normal rains are hurting crops and forcing farmers to reduce planting, farmers, analysts and traders said. El Niño-driven dryness is a double blow for farmers already grappling with fertiliser and diesel shortages caused by the Iran war. Wheat prices have risen about 20 per cent since the start of 2026, largely on concerns over drought in key US growing regions. Rice prices at major Southeast Asian export hubs have climbed around 15pc over the past month on rising production costs and fears of tighter supplies. One of the strongest El Niños on record is widely expected to develop in the second half of 2026, bringing hot-dry weather to Asia and excessive rains to the Americas, with global climate change making things worse. “The El Niño impact globally starts with Southeast Asia, India, Australia, before it has wider implications downstream in North America and South America,” said Chris Hyde, a US-based meteorologist at satellite data and imagery firm SkyFi. Hyde said early signs of drought are already visible on the company’s high-resolution imagery platform, across parts of Asia. Hot-dry weather hits farms In India, the meteorological department last week further reduced its forecast for the four-month monsoon season, which delivers about 70pc of annual rains. “With temperatures across most parts of the country remaining well above normal, conditions are currently unfavourable for the timely sowing of summer crops,” said one New Delhi-based dealer with a global trade house. “Planting is likely to be delayed due to the late onset of the monsoon, but greater concern lies in the possibility of below-normal rainfall and prolonged dry spells after its arrival.” India mainly grows rice, soybeans, pulses, sugarcane and corn in the summer season. For Southeast Asian countries, dryness is hitting rice and palm oil yields in some areas. “Everybody is worried (about drought), it’s risky,” said Nerawat Oramah, a 47-year-old farmer in central Thailand’s Chainat province. “For my second harvest, I have to wait and see the situation. It’s a risk for every one (if there is not enough water), there will only be one harvest.” Thailand and the Philippines plant their main rice crops in June-July, while Vietnam and Indonesia are now sowing their second-season crops. Indonesia’s most populated Java island and some areas in northern Sumatra, south Kalimantan and Sulawesi have not experienced any rain for more than 10 days, according to the country’s meteorological agency, with medium to low rainfall expected in June. Higher prices Rice prices are edging up even though India, which accounts for 40pc of global exports, is sitting on ample supplies after years of near-record harvests. “There is clear indication of crisis as rice prices have moved substantially higher without any major shortage,” said one Singapore-based trader at an international trading company, adding Thai rice prices have climbed around 15pc in the past month. “India has a huge rice stockpile, several times more than what it needs. But the thinking is that very soon India will start looking at these stocks as a critical asset and may introduce some sort of export curbs if we see problems with early part of the monsoon.” However, KKP Research, a unit of Kiatnakin Phatra Bank in Thailand, said some of the impact of the dryness could be cushioned by strong reservoir levels. “What we are more concerned about is fertiliser supply,” the bank said in a note to Reuters. “We estimate that a fertiliser shortage, if it occurs, could reduce rice production by up to 15-20pc in the worst case.” Recent rains over parched Australian farmland have triggered late wheat sowing, but growers are wary of the El Niño in the coming months that could hit yields. The Bureau of Meteorology is predicting that many cropping areas across New South Wales and Queensland will see between 20 and 40 millimetres less rain than usual over the next three months. John Lowe, a farmer near Burcher in central New South Wales, said his total cropping area is still around 30pc smaller than it could have been. El Niño is likely to be neutral for China and the Black Sea region, while bringing more rains to the Americas. “Statistically speaking, there is not much correlation with weather in the US and El Niño, during the summer,” said Drew Lerner, an agricultural meteorologist and president of World Weather Inc. “In a lot of years, we can come up with a little bit more moisture in an El Niño summer. But that does not really mean above-normal rainfall.”

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Myanmar president holds trade and security talks with India's Modi

India gave a red-carpet welcome on Monday to Myanmar’s junta leader-turned President Min Aung Hlaing — his first trip abroad since becoming civilian leader — with talks focusing on security and trade. The former military chief met with Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday, where they shook hands outside New Delhi’s sprawling Hyderabad House. Modi told the Myanmar leader that “India remains Myanmar’s trusted neighbour, a reliable partner and steadfast first responder in times of crisis”, Indian foreign ministry spokesman Randhir Jaiswal said. Min Aung Hlaing was sworn in as Myanmar’s president in April, continuing his rule from a civilian post five years after snatching power in a military coup. Modi also “reaffirmed India’s readiness to support peace and dialogue in Myanmar”, Jaiswal added. New Delhi’s top career diplomat, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri, told reporters after the meeting that discussions included border security and the impact of the civil war in Myanmar, which borders India’s northeastern states. “Stability and peace in Myanmar is obviously a major interest for India,” Misri said. “Not just for the security of the northeast and the safety and security of people living along the 1,643-kilometre-long border that we have with them, but also for our interests — such as connectivity to Southeast Asia,” he said. But he also stressed that any solution to the conflict in Myanmar would have to come from its citizens themselves. Cybercrime “Eventually, the difficulties that face Myanmar will have to be sorted out by the people of Myanmar talking amongst themselves,” he said. “This will have to be a Myanmar-led solution and a Myanmar-owned solution.” India has long supported plans for infrastructure initiatives to link India’s landlocked northeast to the Bay of Bengal through Myanmar, as well as a highway to Thailand — routes that cut through areas of conflict. “Obviously, in these circumstances, it’s a little difficult to meet preset targets and dates,” he said. Bilateral trade was more than $2 billion in 2025-2026, according to New Delhi. India also discussed cybercrime, and Misri said that New Delhi had repatriated more than 2,400 Indians from cyberscam centres in Myanmar in the past year, with around 150 “still stuck” in the country. “Our engagement with Myanmar is not intended to be a commentary on the internal political arrangements in that country,” he said. “We have always proceeded on the principle that sustained dialogue is what is important and what is an imperative for India as a neighbour,” he added. “Disengagement only produces a vacuum that others go on to fill, to our detriment — and those others have no interest in democracy, I can assure you about that,” he said, without giving further details. Min Aung Hlaing arrived in India on Saturday, first stopping in the eastern state of Bihar, with a visit to the Buddhist pilgrimage site of Bodh Gaya — where believers say that the Buddha attained enlightenment. He is expected to hold talks with business representatives during his five-day visit and will travel to the financial hub Mumbai.

Rescuers pull 4 from flooded cave in Laos, 2 still missing

Rescuers pulled four people from a flooded cave in Laos on Saturday, Thai volunteer rescuers said, hours after another man was brought out late on Friday. The five are among seven Lao nationals who had entered the cave in Xaisomboun province to prospect for gold, but were trapped for more than a week when rising water blocked their exit. Two others remain missing. Kengkard Bongkawong, a Thai cave diver involved in the mission, said in a Facebook post on Saturday that all four of the trapped people had emerged from the cave. Video footage from the volunteers showed rescuers bringing four Laotian men out of the cave with flashlights strapped to their heads and with muddy clothes. They had joyful expressions on their faces, and some were crying with relief. The five rescued people were found by rescuers on Wednesday, but had remained trapped. Rescue officials said they would continue searching for the two missing people. A team of volunteers from neighbouring Thailand joined the rescue efforts last Sunday and further reinforcements, including divers from Finland, France, Indonesia, Malaysia, Japan and Australia, have also joined the rescue operation, the volunteer group posted on Facebook. The international rescue team included some members who were involved in the 17-day rescue at the flooded mountain cave of Tham Luang in northern Thailand in 2018.

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Pentagon chief sounds 'alarm' over China's buildup, urges allies to boost defence spending

US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth on Saturday urged Asian allies to ramp up military spending to counter China’s growing power and prevent its dominance in the region, warning of “rightful alarm” over its rapid military buildup. Hegseth, speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Asia’s premier forum for defence leaders, militaries and diplomats, said a stronger, more self-reliant network of allies is essential to deter aggression and preserve the balance of power. “There is rightful alarm regarding China’s historic military buildup and the expansion of its military activities in the region and beyond,” he said. “A Pacific dominated by any hegemon would unravel the regional balance of power,” Hegseth said. “No state, including China, can impose its hegemony and hold the security or prosperity of our nation and our allies in question.” The US expects its Asian allies and partners to increase defence spending to 3.5 per cent of GDP as it pledged a $1.5 trillion investment in its military, the Pentagon chief said. Hegseth stressed allies want stability, not escalation. “What they want, and what the United States delivers, is strength that is disciplined, resolve that is steady, and leadership that is confident enough to speak and walk softly while carrying a big stick.” Hegseth also struck a measured tone on US-China ties, saying relations are “better than they have been in many years,” with more frequent military-to-military engagement helping to manage tensions. “We are meeting more frequently with our Chinese counterparts by maintaining open lines of military-to-military communication.” ‘No freeloading’ Hegseth echoed President Donald Trump’s long-standing demand that allies shoulder more of their own defence costs. Trump has pointedly said European and Nato partners should reduce reliance on Washington. “The era of the United States subsidising the defence of wealthy nations is over,” Hegseth said. “We need partners, not protectorates,” he added. “We don’t have a strong alliance unless everyone has skin in the game. No freeloading.” Hegseth praised contributions from allies including South Korea, the Philippines, Australia, Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand, and said Japan was taking concrete steps to bolster its defences. Tokyo and Washington “must each pull our weight to strengthen the US-Japan alliance,” he said. Ready to restart strikes on Iran On the Middle East conflict, Hegseth said the US stands ready to resume strikes on Iran if diplomacy fails, as negotiators from Washington and Tehran work to bridge major differences blocking a deal. “Our ability to recommence if necessary … we are more than capable,” Hegseth said. He added that Trump remains “patient” and is seeking a “strong deal” to ensure Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon. Hegseth also pushed back on concerns that the conflict would distract from Asia-Pacific priorities. “We can do two things at one time.” Arms sales decision to Taiwan is Trump’s call Asked about arms sales to Taiwan, Hegseth downplayed concerns that a multi-billion-dollar package could be affected as the US draws down its weapons stockpiles amid the Middle East conflict. “We feel very good about our stockpiles and how we use them,” he said. Taiwan, which China views as its own territory, has been waiting for the US to approve an arms sale that could be worth up to $14 billion. Trump sowed uncertainty in Taipei by saying, after meeting China’s President Xi Jinping this month, that he was undecided on whether to approve the package. Any decision on future arms sales would rest with President Trump, Hegseth said, signalling no shift in Washington’s longstanding approach despite recent engagement with Beijing. “Those decisions will depend on the president and the nature of that relationship,” Hegseth said. “There’s been no change in our status.”

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