Opinion: Opinion | Rs 1 Lakh Crore Gone, And Counting: Worse May Be Coming For India's Oil Shock
Cuts in central excise on petrol and diesel cost the Centre roughly $1.18 billion a month in forgone revenue.
๐ฎ๐ณ ์ธ๋ ยท "WORSE" ยท ์ด 21๊ฑด
ํํฐ ๋ณด๊ธฐํ์ฌ ์ง์
48.1
0 = ๋ถ์ ์ฐ์ธ
50 = ์ค๋ฆฝ
100 = ๊ธ์ ์ฐ์ธ
์ต๊ทผ 7์ผ ๊ธฐ์ค 5,590๊ฑด์ ๋ถ์ํ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ, ๋ด์ค ์ฌ๋ฆฌ์ง์๋ 48.1(๊ท ํ)์ ๋๋ค. ๊ธ์ 542๊ฑด(9.7%)ยท์ค๋ฆฝ 3,768๊ฑด(67.4%)ยท๋ถ์ 1,280๊ฑด(22.9%)์ด๋ฉฐ, ์ค๋ฆฝ ๋น์ค์ด ๋๋ ทํ๊ฒ ๋์ต๋๋ค. ์ฑํฅ ์ง์๋ ์ข ํฉ 14.2(์ค๋ ๊ท ํ)์ ๋๋ค.
Cuts in central excise on petrol and diesel cost the Centre roughly $1.18 billion a month in forgone revenue.
The remarks come from Vinoj P Selvam who asserted the worsening crime situation in Tamil Nadu under the TVK
Astronauts on the International Space Station were instructed to take shelter in their docked spacecraft and prepare for a potential evacuation Friday. This precautionary measure was enacted after an air leak in the Russian segment showed signs of worsening, prompting specialists to assess and monitor containment efforts.
Kerala today operates in a less flexible fiscal space with the discontinuation of the Goods and Services Tax compensation, the limits placed on borrowings and the elimination of revenue deficit grants under the 16th Finance Commission regime, according to the document
Kim reportedly said the expansion was necessary given what he called "worsening security threats"
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The Indian rupee is trading around Rs. 95-96 to the dollar in late May 2026, setting fresh record lows. Markets are openly discussing the Rs. 100 threshold. The rupee has weakened in almost every year since 2014 and has lost approximately half its value against the dollar over that period. The end of this currency depreciation is not in sight. The factors that would stop it are not yet visible.The government is acting. State run oil companies have implemented four fuel price hikes in ten days as of May 25, taking petrol in Delhi past Rs. 102 per litre. This is the right and necessary response to the energy cost reality created by the Iran war. Crucially, the Modi government has also done its part on the macroeconomic front, consistently and aggressively reducing the fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP to maintain structural stability.Yet, the currency pressure persists. The energy price impact has not yet fully reached Indian consumers and supply chains. It is coming.Uday Kotak said it plainly at the CII Annual Business Summit on May 12: "Be ready for tough times rather than waiting for the shock to hit us." He was right.Also read | Manufactured monopoly: How industrial policy is structuring monopolies in IndiaThis is not a time to panic. But it is a time to act. The leaders who move now will have options. Those who wait will not.The Overriding Factor: The Psychology of the PlayersWhy is the currency declining despite strong domestic fiscal discipline? Because exchange rates are not driven by mathematical models alone. The currency decline is highly affectedโand acceleratedโby the psychology of all players engaged in this endeavor.Currency movements are deeply behavioral. When a currency visualizes a downward trend, psychology shifts from calculation to self-protection and speculation. Every player in the ecosystem operates under this psychological weight:Corporate CFOs and Treasurers: Instead of hedging normally, they rush to cover future dollar liabilities early, hoarding hard currency and inadvertently worsening the scarcity.Foreign Investors: They begin to judge their returns not by the quality of Indian business operations, but by the eroding value of the conversion rate.Importers and Exporters: Importers advance their payments to avoid paying more tomorrow; exporters delay converting their dollar earnings back into rupees, waiting for a "better" rate. This collective psychology creates a self-fulfilling prophecy.Investors, CFOs, and FDI decision makers extrapolate what is happening now into the future. When they see a currency that has lost approximately half its value since 2014 with no clear floor in sight, their psychological pivot alters market realities.Also read | India tightens checks on overseas flows as currency pressure mounts, sources sayThe cascading timeline of Foreign Portfolio Investor (FPI) equity behavior perfectly mirrors this psychological shift from rational evaluation to systemic risk aversion:2024 (The Calculation Phase): Rupee averages Rs. 83-84. FPI flows remain positive (+$12 billion) as investors trade on strong domestic corporate earnings.2025 (The Self-Protection Phase): Rupee slides past Rs. 89. Collective psychology shifts to risk mitigation. FPIs withdraw a record $18.4 billion from Indian equitiesโthe largest annual equity outflow on record.Early 2026 (The Capitulation Phase): Rupee breaks past Rs. 95. Sentiment turns into an outright exit strategy. In the first four months of 2026 alone, outflows have already reached $19.1 billion, completely bypassing the entire previous year's record loss in a fraction of the time.FDI agreements are being signed, but capital is delayed because players are psychologically hesitant to deploy funds into a depreciating asset.The Trap of Hard Currency Debt: A Broken Business Model There is a highly significant and dangerous phenomenon unfolding in India today that requires immediate exposure. For years, a specific class of Indian corporates adopted a regular strategy of borrowing heavily in hard currency (External Commercial Borrowings, or ECBs). Lured by low nominal global interest rates, several of these companies over borrowed, treating cheap dollar debt as a permanent structural advantage.Today, that strategy has become a trap. The compounding effect of a depreciating rupee, skyrocketing hedging costs, and brutal refinancing realities is fundamentally breaking their business models.Consider the mechanics of this crisis:The Hedging Penalty: Leaving dollar debt unhedged is now corporate roulette. However, buying hedges at current rupee levels has become structurally prohibitive. The cost of protection completely wipes out any interest rate advantage.The Refinancing Wall: Billions in foreign debt are coming due. These over-borrowed companies must now refinance their liabilities at a time when the rupee value has materially deteriorated. They are effectively forced to borrow far more rupees just to pay back the same amount of original dollars.The Crushing Cost of Rupee Capital: As these companies try to pivot back to domestic lenders, they face a severe escalation in their rupee cost of capital.The Growth Verdict: When your cost of capital spikes and your cash flows are consumed by servicing legacy dollar debt, future growth stops. Capital expenditure (CapEx) plans are being frozen. These companies can no longer invest in innovation, capacity, or market expansion. Their business model shifts overnight from aggressive value creation to basic survival. Boards must realize that this is not a temporary treasury headache; it is a structural threat to the companyโs future viability.India's forex reserves stand at approximately 10 to 11 months of import cover. Substantial, but being actively deployed to defend the currency. Some imports are non-negotiable: oil, critical inputs, components. These will now cost more. That cost passes through every supply chain.Six Actions for Business Leaders1. Protect your cash and liquidity first. This is the most immediate priority. Map your cash position today. Identify every source of liquidity across the next twelve months. Stress-test it at Rs. 100 and beyond. Which receivables are at risk? Which credit lines are rupee-denominated and which are not? Companies that run into a cash crisis during a currency depreciation cycle lose their options entirely. The CFO must own this analysis and present it to the board within days, not weeks.2. Act now on your foreign currency borrowings, hedging, and refinancing. Do not assume the rupee will recover to Rs. 80. Analyse your full foreign currency exposure across the next three years: every loan, every refinancing date, every hedging contract, every procurement price denominated in foreign currency. Hard currency loans now face refinancing at rupee values that have materially deteriorated. Model every scenario at Rs. 100 and beyond. Your CFO, treasury, and procurement team must be aligned on one instruction: do not run into a liquidity crisis. This analysis must happen now, not at the next quarterly review.3. Build a war room. Most companies have begun thinking about war rooms for supply chain disruptions. Expand the mandate. Currency exposure belongs in the same room. Which of your costs are dollar or euro denominated? Which of your revenues are rupee denominated? Where is the mismatch? What is your break-even exchange rate? If you do not have clear answers today, you are exposed. The war room is not a committee. It is a real-time decision environment with live data, a clear owner, and the authority to act.4. Use the currency depreciation advantage: double your export salesforce. A weaker rupee makes Indian exports more competitive. This window will not stay open indefinitely. Double the salesforce in your export markets now. Use this period to upgrade quality, improve service delivery, and build customer relationships that will last beyond the currency advantage. Indian exporters who invest in capability during this period will emerge stronger regardless of what the rupee does next. Those who simply ride the price advantage without building the underlying business will lose when conditions change.5. Watch your stock and your sector. Banks and financial institutions should already be on high alert. Companies with large foreign currency exposure will see pressure on their financials. Some stock prices are already reflecting this. Go through your sector company by company. Identify who is most exposed. If you are an investor or a lender, this analysis is not optional. The combination of currency depreciation, rising oil prices, and FPI outflows creates a compounding pressure that will surface in earnings before it surfaces in headlines.6. Cut costs aggressively. AI will help. There has never been more urgency to reduce costs than now. And there has never been a better tool to do it. AI can cut most operational costs by as much as 30% across functions: procurement, finance, customer service, logistics, and compliance. McKinsey data confirms companies adopting AI and automation reduce operational costs by 20 to 30 percent. This is not a future opportunity. It is a present imperative. Every rupee of cost removed through AI is a rupee that does not need to be recovered through revenue in a deteriorating currency environment. Start now with your highest-cost functions.The CFO as CaptainCurrency risk is a cash flow risk. Every function that touches foreign currencyโprocurement, treasury, sales, capex planningโ must now report into a single coordinating authority. That authority is the CFO. This is not about hierarchy. It is about clarity. In a currency crisis, fragmented decision-making is as dangerous as wrong decision making. One captain. One consolidated view. Weekly reviews minimum.The Bigger PictureThis currency depreciation is a structural signal, not a cyclical one. India's economy must move from a cheap labour advantage to genuine global value creation.The companies that will survive and thrive are those building products and services that command premium prices in global markets. The rupee's weakness is a reminder that competing on cost alone has limits.The recently concluded trade agreements are a genuine opportunity. Execute them with full force. Build the export pipelines. Add the sales capacity.The businesses that move now, with discipline and clarity, will manage market psychology, navigate the debt trap, and define the next chapter of Indian industry.The shock is coming. Prepare before it arrives.Ram Charan is the author of Chinaโs 90% model. It is restricting Indiaโs industrial progress. Former Director of Hindalco and Muyuan (China).
Growers are currently losing nearly โน53 per kg with higher cultivation costs worsening their financial burden, says Nagi Reddy
Itโs easy to understand why so many graduates are booing commencement speakers who tell them how great AI is. They face a brutal job market, with unemployment for recent college graduates nearing recession levels, and AI is often cited as the reason they canโt find jobs or have to drastically reassess their career plans.I have a message for the class of 2026: AI is not ruining your job prospects, at least not yet. A better explanation for the tough job market may be the prevalence of WFH, not the rise of AI.131463654Two new studies, one from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and one from the London School of Economics, look at the recent rise in unemployment among young workers. The authors of the LSE study looked at 243 million new hires and 407 million online job postings from 2017 to 2025 in the US, UK, Australia and Canada. They observed a notable decline since 2022 in the hiring of new graduates. AI was presumed to be the reason, since the falloff tends to be in the sort of industries that are adopting AI.But these are also the same kinds of jobs โ reliant on computers, knowledge-intensive, white-collar โ that are most amenable to working from home. When they controlled for WFH, the authors found that the impact of AI on hiring was negligible.The study postulates that where WFH is more common, managing junior staff is more expensive. At the same time, young staffers who receive less training may be less productive than they would be otherwise, even as they mature and demand more pay. So the cost of WFH to young graduates is not just a harder job market โ it also makes it harder for young employees to get good training, supervision and mentorship, a point also made by the New York Fed study.WFH has always had a superficial appeal. At first, it seems easier and often cheaper for both employers and employees; companies can pay less if they offer more flexibility, and many staffers have commitments that keep them at home. In the long term, however, both management and workers pay a price in terms of lost training and career development of younger employees.This could get even worse as AI is more widely adopted. New hires recently out of college who work on their own may figure out how to do specific tasks (perhaps with AI assistance), but they wonโt learn much about how to manage office politics, charm clients or build networks. All these skills will be even more valuable in an AI job market, and none can be gained without coming into the office and observing senior colleagues.The new research doesnโt argue that AI will have no impact on hiring in the future, or that it is currently affecting hiring decisions. Itโs also worth noting that many firms are still hiring โ just not as much as before. There are a lot of factors that go into the health of the labor market, and if the economy worsens, the combination of AI and WFH could make it even harder for young graduates.What does seem clear is that AI is becoming a convenient villain for a lot of complaints people have about the economy. Tech executives arenโt helping by regularly declaring that AI can replace a lot of jobs. More likely, they are using AI as an excuse when they are letting people go for financial reasons. In the case of WFH, it may be easier to blame AI than to ask reluctant staff to come into the office.Iโve seen this reluctance firsthand: A few years ago I met middle-aged media executive who told me how much she loved working from home (or, often in her case, from a resort in Mexico). When I asked her about junior staffers missing out on mentoring and on-the-job training, she admitted she never would have succeeded if senior people werenโt in the office when she was coming up. But she didnโt seem too bothered by it, either.Iโve never been asked to give a commencement speech, but if for some reason I were, this would be my advice: Find a company where everyone likes going to work. Then try to get a job there โ and if you do, go into the office every day.
Mumbai: Two years of challenging equity market returns appear to be prompting a section of retail investors to reassess exposure to the stock market, with industry data showing rising monthly systematic investment plan (SIP) discontinuations and a slowdown in new investor additions.SIP halts continued to outpace new registrations in April, with stoppage ratio at 101%, unchanged from March, according to data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI). This indicates that more SIP accounts were closed than opened during the month.Importantly though, flows through SIPs, the mainstay of domestic investments, have remained resilient.131452535Not a Short-term Game This support has been critical for equities amid overseas investors stampeding out of the Indian markets. Any change in that trend would have led to greater market turmoil.Still, the discontinuation trend has worsened over time, with the 12-month SIP stoppage ratio rising to 94.5% in March 2026, compared with 75.6% in March 2025 and 52% in March 2024.Fresh investor additions slowed in April as well, with 295,000 new investors entering mutual funds, taking the total investor base to 61.7 million. This marks the slowest monthly addition since June 2023.In comparison, the industry added 700,000 and 500,000 new investors in February and March, respectively. The pace has moderated in the past two years, with 7.2 million additions in the 12 months ended March, compared with 9.7 million in the preceding year.The growing SIP stoppages and the drop in fresh investor additions underscore dissatisfaction over lower-than-expected returns from equity schemes."Two years ago, many investors came in after watching incredibly high returns from the small cap space," said Swarup Mohanty, vice chairman and CEO, Mirae Asset Investment Managers. "With high returns not coming their way now, they are disappointed."An SIP in the broad-based Nifty 50 would have lost 2.56% over the last two years, while an investment in the broad Nifty 500 would have fetched 0.83%."Many investors came with high return expectations in short time spans," said Viraj Gandhi, chief executive, Samco Mutual Fund. "As returns over the last two years are low, new investors are slow to come by, while some investors who expected high returns could move to other avenues, which is a natural phenomenon."
How is summer air pollution different from that in winter? Why does ozone rise in hot weather? What drives PM10 spikes in Indian cities? How do dust storms affect air quality? How do human activities worsen summer air pollution? What can cities do to combat summer air pollution?
AI tools are becoming more convincing, but experts warn their tendency to confidently present false information is a growing concern. These systems, optimized for plausibility rather than truth, can mislead users in critical areas like research and healthcare. The risk of errors spreading due to unverified AI responses is significant, making detection harder.
NEW YORK: Businesses big and small have started receiving tariff refunds after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that President Donald Trump lacked the constitutional authority to impose higher import taxes on goods from nearly every other country.The process could grind to a halt, however, after the Trump administration said Friday that it intended to appeal a federal judge's order to allow all companies that paid the invalidated duties to seek refunds, not just the ones that filed lawsuits.Until the Department of Justice informed the judge of its planned appeal, the refund system overseen by U.S. Customs and Border Protection had been working fairly smoothly. Refunds reached the bank accounts of the first successful applicants on May 12, about three weeks after importers and their customs brokers could start submitting claims through an online system, according to CBP.Applications for refunds totaling $85 billion - more than half of the $166 billion the agency estimated the government owes to companies that paid the tariffs on imported goods - were accepted for processing as of May 22, CBP reported in a legal filing earlier in the week. It said it had so far directed the Treasury Department to issue $20.6 billion in refunds.Also read | US probes Reid Hoffman group over funding lawsuits against Trump, source saysThe administration revealed its appeal preparations while objecting to a demand by Judge Richard K. Eaton for CBP Commissioner Rodney Scott to appear in the U.S. Court of International Trade to answer questions about how long it would take to repay all 330,000 importers that might be eligible for refunds. The judge scheduled a June 9 hearing on why he shouldn't require the government do whatever it takes to speed up the process.Justice Department lawyers asked Eaton to allow one or two of Scott's deputies to appear in his place, arguing that as a high-ranking presidential appointee, the CBP chief could not be compelled to testify. They also argued that Eaton exceeded his authority when he determined in March that the Supreme Court's ruling entitled "all importers of record'' to refunds."For that reason, defendants intend to appeal the court's universal injunction," the lawyers wrote, adding that CBP would continue to move "as quicky as it can to process refunds in a phased approach" for businesses that filed legal complaints asserting their rights to refunds.In a written reply, Eaton said he needed to hear directly from Scott whether the government would return all of the money it collected between when Trump put what he called "reciprocal" tariffs on most countries in April 2025 and when the Supreme Court struck them down in late February."It is undisputed that the remedy for this unlawful collection is for the United States government to refund the unlawfully collected duties," the judge wrote.Refunds coming in phasesMore than 1,000 companies, including large ones like Costco, Goodyear Tire, banana and pineapple distributor Dole Fresh Fruit, and department store chain Kohl's, filed lawsuits to recoup their tariff costs. The judge said Wednesday he intended to allow cases he put on hold while CBP figured out how to handle refund claims - they numbered 485 in mid-March - to proceed.Also read | Minority union at Samsung Electronics to challenge pay deal in courtCustoms and Border Protection is handling refund claims in phases, focusing first on payments that weren't finalized before the Supreme Court handed down its 6-3 decision. CBP officials have said those later payments were more straightforward to process.Importers are required to make estimated tariff payments when goods enter the U.S. The declared items then enter a process called "liquidation," in which CBP determines how much in import taxes was owed. The decision becomes final after 180 days unless the payer contests the bill.In Friday's filing, the Justice Department said the agency did not have the technological ability or the legal authority to recalculate liquidated accounts without "importer-specific orders" in each lawsuit.Price cuts promisedSome national retail chains said they planned to use their tariff refunds refunds to lower customer prices on some items. Walmart Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey told analysts last week that the company would implement price cuts even though the maximum refund it might be eligible for represented less than half of 1% of Walmart's $483 billion in annual U.S. sales.Costco intends to return the tariff costs that it passed on to members, CEO Ron Vachris said. How much of its refund the big-box retail chain redistributes, when and in what form, depends on factors such as the size of the refund, when it arrives, and developments in a lawsuit seeking tariff compensation for Costco customers, Vachris told investors Thursday.Consumers could first see refunds from shipping companies such as FedEx, UPS and DHL, which acted as customs brokers when they delivered products ordered from overseas. The companies charged either the sellers that shipped the packages or the buyers who received them and turned the tariffs they collected over to CBP.All three promised to return any refunds they get to the customers that paid the import taxes. Last week, FedEx said it was "working to swiftly process refunds and return them to the shippers and consumers who originally bore those charges."Putting refunds back into the businessThe Supreme Court invalidated only the country-by-country tariff rates Trump set by citing the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Others he imposed under different rationales remain in effect. Trump also has moved to introduce new tariffs since the court's Feb. 20 ruling.Some smaller companies told The Associated Press that the tariff refunds they've received so far would go toward paying remaining or future tariffs or getting back on solid financial footing after more than a year of uncertainty and additional costs.Jay Foreman, CEO of toy company Basic Fun, said he received about $450,000, or 7% of his total claim, over two consecutive days. He took the repayment as a positive sign but said that after having less than $10,000 refunded since then, the process seemed like a "total slow roll.""It's time to release the funds back into the economy, especially given how much we and others need these funds to support our businesses and fund our operations," Foreman said.Men's grooming brand Manscaped has received about 30% of the $12 million in refunds it applied for, President Kevin Datoo said. He said the San Diego company deferred investments and took on debt to pay tariffs on imports from Indonesia, China and elsewhere in Asia last year."We need to shore up the balance sheet because there's still a whole second chapter here," Datoo said.Melkon Khosrovian, who owns Greenbar Distillery in Los Angeles, said he applied for a tariff refund of about $90,000 for 17 different shipments and has received $18,000 covering four of them. Certain types of herbs, spices and packaging are hard to find domestically, so Khosrovian said he imports them.The tariffs were "painful," he said. He invested money to automate his bottling process last year so he wouldn't have to pay as many workers. The move allowed him to reduce his 13-person staff by three, but Khosrovian noted that the White House had argued the tariffs would create more U.S. manufacturing jobs."Our choices were bad and worse: raise prices and lose customers, or keep prices the same and not make any money," he said.
The WHO chief is urging greater international backing to combat a rapidly spreading Ebola outbreak in the DRC, highlighting delays and community mistrust as major hurdles. He stressed the need for local cooperation and urged countries to reconsider travel bans. The outbreak has already reached Uganda, with thousands of cases and hundreds of deaths reported.
The Trump administration has sought to expand access to low-premium catastrophic health insurance plans.
As Telangana battles one of its harshest summers in recent years, the rising burden of suspected heatstroke deaths and worsening urban heat stress are exposing the growing human cost of extreme weather. Even as the State rolls out heat mitigation measures and advisories, questions remain over ground-level implementation and the true scale of heat-related fatalities. Siddharth Kumar Singh reports on how the extreme heat is reshaping life, labour and survival
The survey was conducted before the Iran war, which has hiked the price of groceries in US (File)
In an alarming display of environmental decline, the Yamuna has retreated to a thin stream, allowing locals to stroll across its once-swelling banks. This yearly event, worsened by minimal water allocations from Haryana and extreme heat evaporation, has left the river ecologically bereft.
MSF has publicly accused South Sudanese authorities of blocking humanitarian access.
Yellow alert in force as heavy rain, thunder and 40โ50 kmph winds lash the city today; Thursday and Friday bring patchy showers before the weekend turns wetter.